Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Atlético Tembetary vs Encarnación

Prediction Audit: Atlético Tembetary vs Encarnación Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlético Tembetary Atlético Tembetary
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 53%
Encarnación Encarnación

The model missed the final outcome (Encarnación win 0–2).

The model had projected Atlético Tembetary at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlético Tembetary Encarnación ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Atlético Tembetary -1.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atlético Tembetary 42.4% 44.0% -1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.3% 28.2% +1.0 pp Aligned
Encarnación 28.4% 27.8% +0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Encarnación win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Atlético Tembetary; match finished Encarnación

Market lesson

The full-time result was Encarnación win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Encarnación 28.4%
    • xG · Atlético Tembetary 1.45 — Encarnación 1.15
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Tembetary 2.02 · Draw 3.15 · Encarnación 3.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 44.0% · Draw 28.2% · Encarnación 27.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Tembetary 2.02 · Draw 3.15 · Encarnación 3.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 44.0% · Draw 28.2% · Encarnación 27.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Encarnación win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 91/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6140888

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Encarnación win · Atlético Tembetary 0–2 Encarnación
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Atlético Tembetary vs Encarnación
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Tembetary 1.45 — Encarnación 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
2 Deportivo Santani 25 15 3 7 48
3 12 de Junio VH 25 14 6 5 48
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 25 8 8 9 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 25 6 9 10 27
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 25 43 24 +19 48
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 12 de Junio VH 25 35 26 +9 48
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Deportivo Capiata 25 30 36 -6 27
12 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
13 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
14 Resistencia 25 27 30 -3 32
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions