Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Encarnación vs Benjamín Aceval

Prediction Audit: Encarnación vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Encarnación Encarnación
Aug 31, 2026 - 21:30
1 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
Benjamín Aceval Benjamín Aceval

The model missed the final outcome (Benjamín Aceval win 1–3).

The model had projected Encarnación at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Encarnación Benjamín Aceval ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Benjamín Aceval higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Benjamín Aceval -14.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Encarnación 35.2% 25.9% +9.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.3% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Benjamín Aceval 35.2% 49.8% -14.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Benjamín Aceval's win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Benjamín Aceval win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Benjamín Aceval than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Encarnación; match finished Benjamín Aceval

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Encarnación by 14.7 percentage points (49.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Encarnación 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Benjamín Aceval 35.2%
    • xG · Encarnación 1.30 — Benjamín Aceval 1.30
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Encarnación 3.35 · Draw 3.57 · Benjamín Aceval 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Encarnación 25.9% · Draw 24.3% · Benjamín Aceval 49.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Encarnación 3.35 · Draw 3.57 · Benjamín Aceval 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Encarnación 25.9% · Draw 24.3% · Benjamín Aceval 49.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Benjamín Aceval win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5405642

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Benjamín Aceval win · Encarnación 1–3 Benjamín Aceval
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Encarnación vs Benjamín Aceval
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Encarnación 1.3 — Benjamín Aceval 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 General Caballero 24 15 5 4 50
2 Deportivo Santani 24 14 3 7 45
3 12 de Junio VH 23 13 6 4 45
4 Benjamín Aceval 24 11 6 7 39
5 SOL DE America 24 8 13 3 37
6 Independiente F.b.c. 24 8 10 6 34
7 Paraguari AC 24 9 5 10 32
8 Resistencia 24 8 8 8 32
9 Sportivo Carapeguá 23 9 4 10 31
10 Atlético Tembetary 23 8 6 9 30
11 Fernando De La Mora 24 7 7 10 28
12 Deportivo Capiata 24 6 9 9 27
13 Guairena FC 24 6 6 12 24
14 3 de Noviembre 24 5 7 12 22
15 Tacuary 23 3 11 9 20
16 Encarnación 24 5 4 15 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 24 49 27 +22 50
2 Deportivo Santani 24 40 24 +16 45
3 Benjamín Aceval 24 37 29 +8 39
4 12 de Junio VH 23 33 21 +12 45
5 Independiente F.b.c. 24 33 32 +1 34
6 Atlético Tembetary 23 32 35 -3 30
7 Paraguari AC 24 31 31 0 32
8 SOL DE America 24 30 21 +9 37
9 Deportivo Capiata 24 29 33 -4 27
10 3 de Noviembre 24 29 37 -8 22
11 Sportivo Carapeguá 23 28 37 -9 31
12 Resistencia 24 26 28 -2 32
13 Fernando De La Mora 24 26 34 -8 28
14 Tacuary 23 25 37 -12 20
15 Encarnación 24 22 33 -11 19
16 Guairena FC 24 21 32 -11 24
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions