Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Sportivo Carapeguá vs Tacuary

Prediction Audit: Sportivo Carapeguá vs Tacuary Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sportivo Carapeguá Sportivo Carapeguá
Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 49%
Tacuary Tacuary

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Tacuary at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tacuary Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sportivo Carapeguá higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sportivo Carapeguá -14.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sportivo Carapeguá 34.7% 48.7% -14.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
Tacuary 35.6% 24.6% +11.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sportivo Carapeguá's win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sportivo Carapeguá than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Tacuary; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tacuary by 14.0 percentage points (49.6% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sportivo Carapeguá 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Tacuary 35.6%
    • xG · Sportivo Carapeguá 1.29 — Tacuary 1.31
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sportivo Carapeguá 1.78 · Draw 3.26 · Tacuary 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Carapeguá 48.7% · Draw 26.6% · Tacuary 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sportivo Carapeguá 1.78 · Draw 3.26 · Tacuary 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Carapeguá 48.7% · Draw 26.6% · Tacuary 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8676985

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sportivo Carapeguá 0–0 Tacuary
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Sportivo Carapeguá vs Tacuary
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Sportivo Carapeguá 1.29 — Tacuary 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 26 8 8 10 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 6 10 10 28
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Deportivo Capiata 26 30 36 -6 28
12 Resistencia 26 28 32 -4 32
13 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions