Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Alef / Dimona vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Prediction Audit: Dimona vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dimona Dimona
Sep 23, 2026 - 17:10
1 1.34
5 1.26
xG Accuracy: 33%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 1–5).

The model had projected Dimona at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dimona Maccabi Kiryat Malachi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dimona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dimona -15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dimona 37.1% 52.4% -15.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.7% +1.9 pp Aligned
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 33.3% 19.9% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dimona's win probability at 52.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 1–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dimona than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Dimona; match finished Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dimona by 15.4 percentage points (52.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 23, 2026 · 17:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dimona 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 33.4%
    • xG · Dimona 1.34 — Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.26
  2. Sep 23, 2026 · 16:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dimona 1.69 · Draw 3.20 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 4.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Dimona 52.4% · Draw 27.7% · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 19.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 23, 2026 · 17:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dimona 1.69 · Draw 3.20 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 4.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Dimona 52.4% · Draw 27.7% · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 19.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 23, 2026 · 17:10 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9166207

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win · Dimona 1–5 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Alef
  • Fixture: Dimona vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-23 17:10:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Dimona 1.34 — Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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