Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Alef / Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Sep 17, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Hapoel Sderot Hapoel Sderot

The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Sderot win 0–1).

The model had projected Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda Hapoel Sderot ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Sderot higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Sderot -15.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 36.1% 22.4% +13.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 27.4% +2.2 pp Aligned
Hapoel Sderot 34.2% 50.2% -15.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hapoel Sderot's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hapoel Sderot win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hapoel Sderot than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Hapoel Mahane Yehuda; match finished Hapoel Sderot

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hapoel Mahane Yehuda by 15.9 percentage points (52.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Hapoel Sderot 34.2%
    • xG · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1.32 — Hapoel Sderot 1.28
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3.96 · Draw 3.24 · Hapoel Sderot 1.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 22.4% · Draw 27.4% · Hapoel Sderot 50.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3.96 · Draw 3.24 · Hapoel Sderot 1.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 22.4% · Draw 27.4% · Hapoel Sderot 50.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hapoel Sderot win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8194595

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hapoel Sderot win · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 0–1 Hapoel Sderot
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Alef
  • Fixture: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Sderot
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1.32 — Hapoel Sderot 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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