Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Alef / Maccabi Neve Sha'anan vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
Sep 19, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Ironi Karmiel higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel -5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 36.1% 34.1% +2.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 34.2% 39.7% -5.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hapoel Ironi Karmiel's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Ironi Karmiel. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Neve Sha'anan; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Neve Sha'anan by 5.4 percentage points (41.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 34.2%
    • xG · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1.32 — Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.28
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 2.62 · Draw 3.40 · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 34.1% · Draw 26.2% · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 2.62 · Draw 3.40 · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 34.1% · Draw 26.2% · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8667520

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1–1 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Alef
  • Fixture: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1.32 — Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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