Prediction Audit: Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fátima

Aug 29, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.19

1 1.41

xG Accuracy: 54%

Benfica Castelo Branco

The model missed the final outcome (Fátima win 3–1).

The model had projected Benfica Castelo Branco at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Benfica Castelo Branco Fátima ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fátima	30.1%	44.1%	-13.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	26.2%	+3.2 pp	Aligned
Benfica Castelo Branco	40.4%	29.7%	+10.7 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Fátima's win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Fátima win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Fátima than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Benfica Castelo Branco; match finished Fátima

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Benfica Castelo Branco by 13.9 percentage points (54.3% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fátima 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Benfica Castelo Branco 40.5%
- xG · Fátima 1.19 — Benfica Castelo Branco 1.41
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fátima 2.03 · Draw 3.41 · Benfica Castelo Branco 3.01
- Implied 1X2 · Fátima 44.1% · Draw 26.2% · Benfica Castelo Branco 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Fátima 2.03 · Draw 3.41 · Benfica Castelo Branco 3.01
- Implied 1X2 · Fátima 44.1% · Draw 26.2% · Benfica Castelo Branco 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Fátima win · 3–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (14 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5156128

Closing Odds 2.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Fátima win · Fátima 3–1 Benfica Castelo Branco

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Taça de Portugal
Fixture: Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Fátima 1.19 — Benfica Castelo Branco 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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