Predictions / Football / Portugal. Taça de Portugal / O Elvas vs União de Leiria

Prediction Audit: O Elvas vs União de Leiria Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

O Elvas O Elvas
Sep 19, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
União de Leiria União de Leiria

The model missed the final outcome (União de Leiria win 0–2).

The model had projected O Elvas at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 O Elvas União de Leiria ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices União de Leiria higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: União de Leiria -24.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
O Elvas 36.1% 16.5% +19.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.2 pp Model Higher
União de Leiria 34.2% 59.0% -24.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates União de Leiria's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 24.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was União de Leiria win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on O Elvas by 24.8 percentage points (60.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · O Elvas 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · União de Leiria 34.2%
    • xG · O Elvas 1.32 — União de Leiria 1.28
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · O Elvas 5.28 · Draw 3.61 · União de Leiria 1.52
    • Implied 1X2 · O Elvas 16.9% · Draw 24.6% · União de Leiria 58.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · O Elvas 5.43 · Draw 3.67 · União de Leiria 1.52
    • Implied 1X2 · O Elvas 16.5% · Draw 24.4% · União de Leiria 59.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result União de Leiria win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8705800

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result União de Leiria win · O Elvas 0–2 União de Leiria
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Taça de Portugal
  • Fixture: O Elvas vs União de Leiria
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): O Elvas 1.32 — União de Leiria 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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