The model missed the final outcome (Azerbaijan win 1–0).
The model had projected Tajikistan at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tajikistan Azerbaijan ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 32.9% | 49.5% | -16.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Tajikistan | 37.5% | 22.8% | +14.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Azerbaijan's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Azerbaijan win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Azerbaijan than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tajikistan by 16.6 percentage points (54.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Azerbaijan 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Tajikistan 37.6%
- xG · Azerbaijan 1.25 — Tajikistan 1.35
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Azerbaijan 1.76 · Draw 3.14 · Tajikistan 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Azerbaijan 49.5% · Draw 27.8% · Tajikistan 22.8%
- Bookmaker · SBO
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Azerbaijan 1.76 · Draw 3.14 · Tajikistan 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Azerbaijan 49.5% · Draw 27.8% · Tajikistan 22.8%
- Bookmaker · SBO
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Azerbaijan win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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