AI correctly predicted the Delfines Del Este win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Delfines Del Este Delfines Del Este ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delfines Del Este | 45.8% | 57.1% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 23.0% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Jarabacoa | 25.4% | 19.9% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Delfines Del Este's win probability at 57.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Delfines Del Este win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Delfines Del Este than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Delfines Del Este attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Delfines Del Este higher (57.1% vs model 45.8%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Delfines Del Este win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Delfines Del Este 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Jarabacoa 25.4%
- xG · Delfines Del Este 1.52 — Jarabacoa 1.08
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Delfines Del Este 1.57 · Draw 3.90 · Jarabacoa 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Delfines Del Este 57.1% · Draw 23.0% · Jarabacoa 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Delfines Del Este 1.57 · Draw 3.90 · Jarabacoa 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Delfines Del Este 57.1% · Draw 23.0% · Jarabacoa 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Delfines Del Este win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Mayor — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Cibao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Universidad O&M | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Moca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Vega Real | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 4 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 2 | Cibao | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Universidad O&M | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Vega Real | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Jarabacoa | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 7 | Atlántico | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 8 | Moca | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
