AI correctly predicted the Cibao win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Cibao Cibao ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarabacoa | 24.5% | 14.9% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 21.3% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Cibao | 46.8% | 63.8% | -17.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Cibao's win probability at 63.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cibao win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Cibao than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Cibao attacking xG significantly stronger (1.54 vs 1.06)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cibao higher (63.8% vs model 46.8%, 17.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cibao win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Jarabacoa 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Cibao 46.8%
- xG · Jarabacoa 1.06 — Cibao 1.54
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Jarabacoa 6.00 · Draw 4.20 · Cibao 1.40
- Implied 1X2 · Jarabacoa 14.9% · Draw 21.3% · Cibao 63.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Jarabacoa 6.00 · Draw 4.20 · Cibao 1.40
- Implied 1X2 · Jarabacoa 14.9% · Draw 21.3% · Cibao 63.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cibao win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Mayor — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Cibao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Universidad O&M | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Moca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Vega Real | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 4 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 2 | Cibao | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Universidad O&M | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Vega Real | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Jarabacoa | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 7 | Atlántico | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 8 | Moca | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
