The model missed the final outcome (Atletico Madrid win 1–2).
The model had projected Marseille at 35.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Marseille Atletico Madrid ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 35.3% | 32.4% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.1% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Atletico Madrid | 35.3% | 42.6% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Atletico Madrid's win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.3%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Atletico Madrid win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Atletico Madrid. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Marseille; match finished Atletico Madrid
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Marseille by 7.3 percentage points (42.6% vs model 35.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Marseille 35.3% · Draw 29.4% · Atletico Madrid 35.3%
- xG · Marseille 1.30 — Atletico Madrid 1.30
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Marseille 2.83 · Draw 3.65 · Atletico Madrid 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Marseille 32.4% · Draw 25.1% · Atletico Madrid 42.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Marseille 2.83 · Draw 3.65 · Atletico Madrid 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Marseille 32.4% · Draw 25.1% · Atletico Madrid 42.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atletico Madrid win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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