Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie B / Verona vs Ascoli

Prediction Audit: Verona vs Ascoli Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Verona Verona
Aug 23, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.11
2 1.07
xG Accuracy: 75%
Ascoli Ascoli

The model missed the final outcome (Ascoli win 1–2).

The model had projected Verona at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Verona Ascoli ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Verona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Verona -14.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Verona 40.4% 54.9% -14.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.5% 27.7% +3.8 pp Aligned
Ascoli 28.1% 17.4% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Verona's win probability at 54.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ascoli win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Verona than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Verona by 14.5 percentage points (54.9% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:36 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Verona 40.4% · Draw 31.5% · Ascoli 28.1%
    • xG · Verona 1.11 — Ascoli 1.07
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Verona 1.75 · Draw 3.47 · Ascoli 5.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Verona 54.9% · Draw 27.7% · Ascoli 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Verona 1.75 · Draw 3.47 · Ascoli 5.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Verona 54.9% · Draw 27.7% · Ascoli 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ascoli win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4369880

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ascoli win · Verona 1–2 Ascoli
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Verona vs Ascoli
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Verona 1.11 — Ascoli 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.18)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mantova 4 3 1 0 10
2 Palermo 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sudtirol 4 2 2 0 8
4 Avellino 4 2 1 1 7
5 Padova 4 2 1 1 7
6 Modena 4 2 1 1 7
7 Ascoli 4 2 1 1 7
8 Cesena 4 1 3 0 6
9 Pisa 4 2 0 2 6
10 Empoli 4 2 0 2 6
11 Arezzo 4 2 0 2 6
12 Vicenza Virtus 4 1 2 1 5
13 Benevento 4 1 1 2 4
14 Virtus Entella 4 1 1 2 4
15 Cremonese 4 1 1 2 4
16 Verona 4 1 1 2 4
17 Catanzaro 4 1 0 3 3
18 Juve Stabia 4 1 1 2 2
19 Carrarese 4 0 1 3 1
20 Sampdoria 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mantova 4 8 3 +5 10
2 Palermo 4 8 4 +4 10
3 Verona 4 8 6 +2 4
4 Virtus Entella 4 7 6 +1 4
5 Avellino 4 6 3 +3 7
6 Modena 4 6 3 +3 7
7 Cesena 4 6 5 +1 6
8 Pisa 4 6 6 0 6
9 Vicenza Virtus 4 6 8 -2 5
10 Sudtirol 4 5 2 +3 8
11 Benevento 4 5 5 0 4
12 Cremonese 4 5 7 -2 4
13 Arezzo 4 5 9 -4 6
14 Ascoli 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Padova 4 4 4 0 7
16 Catanzaro 4 4 7 -3 3
17 Empoli 4 3 4 -1 6
18 Juve Stabia 4 3 6 -3 2
19 Sampdoria 4 3 8 -5 1
20 Carrarese 4 2 5 -3 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Verona 4 4.8 2.2 +2.6 4
2 Modena 4 3.2 1.3 +1.9 7
3 Benevento 4 2.8 1.1 +1.7 4
4 Pisa 4 3.7 2.2 +1.5 6
5 Palermo 4 3.2 2.2 +1.0 10
6 Cesena 4 3.0 2.1 +0.9 6
7 Mantova 4 2.9 2.6 +0.3 10
8 Sampdoria 4 2.3 2.3 0.0 1
9 Carrarese 4 2.7 2.8 -0.1 1
10 Vicenza Virtus 4 2.9 3.1 -0.2 5
11 Arezzo 4 2.5 2.7 -0.2 6
12 Empoli 4 1.4 1.6 -0.2 6
13 Virtus Entella 4 1.2 1.4 -0.2 4
14 Juve Stabia 4 2.1 2.4 -0.3 2
15 Cremonese 4 0.7 1.6 -0.9 4
16 Catanzaro 4 2.8 3.8 -1.0 3
17 Padova 4 2.0 3.3 -1.3 7
18 Sudtirol 4 1.5 2.8 -1.3 8
19 Avellino 4 2.5 4.4 -1.9 7
20 Ascoli 4 2.9 4.9 -2.0 7
Serie B Italy. Serie B Predictions