Prediction Audit: Modena vs Empoli Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Modena

Sep 20, 2026 - 17:30

2 1.02

1 0.85

xG Accuracy: 73%

Empoli

AI correctly predicted the Modena win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Modena Modena ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Modena	43.2%	59.1%	-16.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	32.7%	24.9%	+7.8 pp	Model Higher
Empoli	24.1%	16.0%	+8.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Modena's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.2%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Modena win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Modena than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Modena higher (59.2% vs model 43.2%, 16.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Modena win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 20, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Modena 43.1% · Draw 32.7% · Empoli 24.2%
- xG · Modena 1.02 — Empoli 0.85
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Modena 1.63 · Draw 3.87 · Empoli 6.04
- Implied 1X2 · Modena 59.1% · Draw 24.9% · Empoli 16.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Modena 1.63 · Draw 3.87 · Empoli 6.04
- Implied 1X2 · Modena 59.1% · Draw 24.9% · Empoli 16.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Modena win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8694226

Closing Odds 1.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Modena win · Modena 2–1 Empoli

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Modena vs Empoli
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Modena 1.02 — Empoli 0.85 (total xG ≈ 1.87)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	13
2	Sudtirol	5	3	2	0	11
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	11
4	Modena	5	3	1	1	10
5	Ascoli	5	3	1	1	10
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	7
7	Benevento	5	2	1	2	7
8	Verona	5	2	1	2	7
9	Avellino	5	2	1	2	7
10	Cesena	5	1	4	0	7
11	Pisa	5	2	1	2	7
12	Arezzo	5	2	0	3	6
13	Empoli	5	2	0	3	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	5
15	Cremonese	5	1	2	2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	1	2	2	5
17	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	4
18	Juve Stabia	5	1	2	2	3
19	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Palermo	5	10	5	+5	13
2	Mantova	5	10	5	+5	11
3	Verona	5	10	7	+3	7
4	Sudtirol	5	9	3	+6	11
5	Modena	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Pisa	5	8	8	0	7
7	Ascoli	5	7	4	+3	10
8	Avellino	5	7	6	+1	7
9	Cesena	5	7	6	+1	7
10	Virtus Entella	5	7	6	+1	5
11	Vicenza Virtus	5	7	10	-3	5
12	Benevento	5	6	5	+1	7
13	Arezzo	5	6	13	-7	6
14	Padova	5	5	6	-1	7
15	Cremonese	5	5	7	-2	5
16	Sampdoria	5	5	9	-4	4
17	Catanzaro	5	5	9	-4	3
18	Empoli	5	4	6	-2	6
19	Juve Stabia	5	4	7	-3	3
20	Carrarese	5	2	6	-4	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Verona	5	4.8	2.2	+2.6	7
2	Modena	5	3.2	1.3	+1.9	10
3	Benevento	5	2.8	1.1	+1.7	7
4	Pisa	5	3.7	2.2	+1.5	7
5	Palermo	5	3.2	2.2	+1.0	13
6	Cesena	5	3.0	2.1	+0.9	7
7	Mantova	5	2.9	2.6	+0.3	11
8	Sampdoria	5	2.3	2.3	0.0	4
9	Carrarese	5	2.7	2.8	-0.1	1
10	Vicenza Virtus	5	2.9	3.1	-0.2	5
11	Arezzo	5	2.5	2.7	-0.2	6
12	Empoli	5	1.4	1.6	-0.2	6
13	Virtus Entella	5	1.2	1.4	-0.2	5
14	Juve Stabia	5	2.1	2.4	-0.3	3
15	Cremonese	5	0.7	1.6	-0.9	5
16	Catanzaro	5	2.8	3.8	-1.0	3
17	Padova	5	2.0	3.3	-1.3	7
18	Sudtirol	5	1.5	2.8	-1.3	11
19	Avellino	5	2.5	4.4	-1.9	7
20	Ascoli	5	2.9	4.9	-2.0	10