Prediction Audit: Bath City vs Chippenham Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bath City

Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

Chippenham Town

AI correctly predicted the Bath City win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Bath City Bath City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Bath City	36.1%	49.1%	-13.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.1%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher
Chippenham Town	34.2%	26.8%	+7.4 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Bath City's win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bath City win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bath City than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bath City higher (49.1% vs model 36.1%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bath City win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 12, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bath City 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Chippenham Town 34.2%
- xG · Bath City 1.32 — Chippenham Town 1.28
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bath City 1.84 · Draw 3.75 · Chippenham Town 3.37
- Implied 1X2 · Bath City 49.1% · Draw 24.1% · Chippenham Town 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Bath City 1.84 · Draw 3.75 · Chippenham Town 3.37
- Implied 1X2 · Bath City 49.1% · Draw 24.1% · Chippenham Town 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Bath City win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7448767

Closing Odds 1.84

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bath City win · Bath City 2–0 Chippenham Town

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Non League Premier - Southern South
Fixture: Bath City vs Chippenham Town
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Bath City 1.32 — Chippenham Town 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	6	1	1	19
2	Uxbridge	8	5	2	1	17
3	Hanworth Villa	8	5	1	2	16
4	Chertsey Town	8	4	2	2	14
5	Bath City	8	4	2	2	14
6	Frome Town	8	4	1	3	13
7	Chichester City	8	4	1	3	13
8	Berkhamsted	9	4	1	4	13
9	Taunton Town	8	4	0	4	12
10	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	12
11	Gosport Borough	8	3	2	3	11
12	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	11
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	10
14	Bracknell Town	8	3	1	4	10
15	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	9
16	Basingstoke Town	8	2	3	3	9
17	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7
18	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7
19	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6
20	Gloucester City	8	1	3	4	6
21	Malvern Town	8	1	2	5	5
22	Havant & Wville	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	22	7	+15	19
2	Taunton Town	8	21	20	+1	12
3	Chertsey Town	8	19	12	+7	14
4	Uxbridge	8	17	7	+10	17
5	Hanworth Villa	8	15	7	+8	16
6	Chichester City	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Basingstoke Town	8	13	14	-1	9
8	Frome Town	8	12	8	+4	13
9	Malvern Town	8	12	23	-11	5
10	Bath City	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Gosport Borough	8	11	9	+2	11
12	Berkhamsted	9	11	12	-1	13
13	Evesham United	7	11	14	-3	10
14	Gloucester City	8	11	16	-5	6
15	Yate Town	7	10	11	-1	11
16	Bracknell Town	8	10	17	-7	10
17	Poole Town	7	8	9	-1	12
18	Havant & Wville	8	8	15	-7	4
19	Sholing	7	7	12	-5	7
20	Chippenham Town	7	7	14	-7	7
21	Wimborne Town	7	6	4	+2	9
22	Hanwell Town	7	6	9	-3	6