Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Southern South / Poole Town vs Basingstoke Town

Prediction Audit: Poole Town vs Basingstoke Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Poole Town Poole Town
Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 54%
Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town

The model missed the final outcome (Basingstoke Town win 0–2).

The model had projected Poole Town at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Poole Town Basingstoke Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Poole Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Poole Town -11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Poole Town 40.9% 52.9% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.5% +4.9 pp Aligned
Basingstoke Town 29.7% 22.6% +7.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Poole Town's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Basingstoke Town win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Poole Town than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Poole Town; match finished Basingstoke Town

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Poole Town by 11.9 percentage points (52.8% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Poole Town 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Basingstoke Town 29.6%
    • xG · Poole Town 1.42 — Basingstoke Town 1.18
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Poole Town 1.71 · Draw 3.69 · Basingstoke Town 3.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Poole Town 52.9% · Draw 24.5% · Basingstoke Town 22.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:19 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Poole Town 1.71 · Draw 3.69 · Basingstoke Town 3.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Poole Town 52.9% · Draw 24.5% · Basingstoke Town 22.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Basingstoke Town win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3356128

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Basingstoke Town win · Poole Town 0–2 Basingstoke Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Non League Premier - Southern South
  • Fixture: Poole Town vs Basingstoke Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Poole Town 1.42 — Basingstoke Town 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Plymouth Parkway 8 6 1 1 19
2 Uxbridge 8 5 2 1 17
3 Hanworth Villa 8 5 1 2 16
4 Chertsey Town 8 4 2 2 14
5 Bath City 8 4 2 2 14
6 Frome Town 8 4 1 3 13
7 Chichester City 8 4 1 3 13
8 Berkhamsted 9 4 1 4 13
9 Taunton Town 8 4 0 4 12
10 Poole Town 7 4 0 3 12
11 Gosport Borough 8 3 2 3 11
12 Yate Town 7 3 2 2 11
13 Evesham United 7 3 1 3 10
14 Bracknell Town 8 3 1 4 10
15 Wimborne Town 7 2 3 2 9
16 Basingstoke Town 8 2 3 3 9
17 Sholing 7 2 1 4 7
18 Chippenham Town 7 2 1 4 7
19 Hanwell Town 7 1 3 3 6
20 Gloucester City 8 1 3 4 6
21 Malvern Town 8 1 2 5 5
22 Havant & Wville 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Plymouth Parkway 8 22 7 +15 19
2 Taunton Town 8 21 20 +1 12
3 Chertsey Town 8 19 12 +7 14
4 Uxbridge 8 17 7 +10 17
5 Hanworth Villa 8 15 7 +8 16
6 Chichester City 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Basingstoke Town 8 13 14 -1 9
8 Frome Town 8 12 8 +4 13
9 Malvern Town 8 12 23 -11 5
10 Bath City 8 11 7 +4 14
11 Gosport Borough 8 11 9 +2 11
12 Berkhamsted 9 11 12 -1 13
13 Evesham United 7 11 14 -3 10
14 Gloucester City 8 11 16 -5 6
15 Yate Town 7 10 11 -1 11
16 Bracknell Town 8 10 17 -7 10
17 Poole Town 7 8 9 -1 12
18 Havant & Wville 8 8 15 -7 4
19 Sholing 7 7 12 -5 7
20 Chippenham Town 7 7 14 -7 7
21 Wimborne Town 7 6 4 +2 9
22 Hanwell Town 7 6 9 -3 6
Non League Premier - Southern South England. Non League Premier - Southern South Predictions