Prediction Audit: Poole Town vs Sholing Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Poole Town

Aug 11, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Sholing

The model missed the final outcome (Sholing win 0–1).

The model had projected Poole Town at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Poole Town Sholing ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Poole Town	36.6%	43.9%	-7.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.5%	+2.1 pp	Aligned
Sholing	33.8%	28.6%	+5.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Poole Town's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sholing win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Poole Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Poole Town; match finished Sholing

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Poole Town by 7.3 percentage points (43.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 11, 2026 · 18:51 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Poole Town 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sholing 33.8%
- xG · Poole Town 1.33 — Sholing 1.27
Aug 11, 2026 · 18:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Poole Town 2.06 · Draw 3.29 · Sholing 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Poole Town 43.9% · Draw 27.5% · Sholing 28.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 11, 2026 · 18:51 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Poole Town 2.06 · Draw 3.29 · Sholing 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Poole Town 43.9% · Draw 27.5% · Sholing 28.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sholing win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3020818

Closing Odds 2.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sholing win · Poole Town 0–1 Sholing

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Non League Premier - Southern South
Fixture: Poole Town vs Sholing
Kickoff: 2026-08-11 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Poole Town 1.33 — Sholing 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	6	1	1	19
2	Uxbridge	8	5	2	1	17
3	Hanworth Villa	8	5	1	2	16
4	Chertsey Town	8	4	2	2	14
5	Bath City	8	4	2	2	14
6	Frome Town	8	4	1	3	13
7	Chichester City	8	4	1	3	13
8	Berkhamsted	9	4	1	4	13
9	Taunton Town	8	4	0	4	12
10	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	12
11	Gosport Borough	8	3	2	3	11
12	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	11
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	10
14	Bracknell Town	8	3	1	4	10
15	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	9
16	Basingstoke Town	8	2	3	3	9
17	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7
18	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7
19	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6
20	Gloucester City	8	1	3	4	6
21	Malvern Town	8	1	2	5	5
22	Havant & Wville	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	22	7	+15	19
2	Taunton Town	8	21	20	+1	12
3	Chertsey Town	8	19	12	+7	14
4	Uxbridge	8	17	7	+10	17
5	Hanworth Villa	8	15	7	+8	16
6	Chichester City	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Basingstoke Town	8	13	14	-1	9
8	Frome Town	8	12	8	+4	13
9	Malvern Town	8	12	23	-11	5
10	Bath City	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Gosport Borough	8	11	9	+2	11
12	Berkhamsted	9	11	12	-1	13
13	Evesham United	7	11	14	-3	10
14	Gloucester City	8	11	16	-5	6
15	Yate Town	7	10	11	-1	11
16	Bracknell Town	8	10	17	-7	10
17	Poole Town	7	8	9	-1	12
18	Havant & Wville	8	8	15	-7	4
19	Sholing	7	7	12	-5	7
20	Chippenham Town	7	7	14	-7	7
21	Wimborne Town	7	6	4	+2	9
22	Hanwell Town	7	6	9	-3	6