AI correctly predicted the Cancún win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Cancún Cancún ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | 32.9% | 56.3% | -23.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Cancún | 37.5% | 17.9% | +19.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Piratas's win probability at 56.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 23.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cancún win 0–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cancún higher (61.0% vs model 37.5%, 23.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cancún win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Piratas 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Cancún 37.6%
- xG · Piratas 1.25 — Cancún 1.35
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Piratas 1.68 · Draw 3.67 · Cancún 5.28
- Implied 1X2 · Piratas 56.3% · Draw 25.8% · Cancún 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Piratas 1.68 · Draw 3.67 · Cancún 5.28
- Implied 1X2 · Piratas 56.3% · Draw 25.8% · Cancún 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cancún win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monarcas | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CA La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Correcaminos Uat | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Tapatío | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorados | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 10 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 9 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Correcaminos Uat | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Piratas | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Durango | 9 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 |
