Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Correcaminos Uat vs CDS Tampico Madero

Prediction Audit: Correcaminos Uat vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Correcaminos Uat Correcaminos Uat
Sep 26, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 64%
CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero

The model missed the final outcome (Correcaminos Uat win 1–0).

The model had projected CDS Tampico Madero at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CDS Tampico Madero Correcaminos Uat ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Correcaminos Uat higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Correcaminos Uat -13.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Correcaminos Uat 28.8% 42.3% -13.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 25.2% +4.1 pp Aligned
CDS Tampico Madero 41.9% 32.5% +9.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Correcaminos Uat's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.8%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Correcaminos Uat win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Correcaminos Uat than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned CDS Tampico Madero; match finished Correcaminos Uat

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on CDS Tampico Madero by 13.5 percentage points (55.4% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Correcaminos Uat 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · CDS Tampico Madero 41.9%
    • xG · Correcaminos Uat 1.16 — CDS Tampico Madero 1.44
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Correcaminos Uat 2.25 · Draw 3.78 · CDS Tampico Madero 2.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Correcaminos Uat 42.3% · Draw 25.2% · CDS Tampico Madero 32.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Correcaminos Uat 2.25 · Draw 3.78 · CDS Tampico Madero 2.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Correcaminos Uat 42.3% · Draw 25.2% · CDS Tampico Madero 32.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Correcaminos Uat win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076108

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Correcaminos Uat win · Correcaminos Uat 1–0 CDS Tampico Madero
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Correcaminos Uat vs CDS Tampico Madero
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Correcaminos Uat 1.16 — CDS Tampico Madero 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.3% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monarcas 9 7 0 2 21
2 CA La Paz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 6 2 2 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 5 2 3 17
5 Piratas 10 4 3 3 15
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 4 3 3 15
7 Cancún 9 4 2 3 14
8 Tapatío 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorados 9 3 4 2 13
10 Venados FC 9 4 1 4 13
11 Durango 9 3 2 4 11
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 3 2 5 11
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 10
14 Tlaxcala 9 2 2 5 8
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 7
16 Tepatitlán 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 10 23 11 +12 20
2 Venados FC 9 22 19 +3 13
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 21 13 +8 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 21 15 +6 17
5 Monarcas 9 19 9 +10 21
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 19 18 +1 15
7 Cancún 9 17 11 +6 14
8 Dorados 9 17 13 +4 13
9 Tapatío 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Tlaxcala 9 14 21 -7 8
11 Piratas 10 12 10 +2 15
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 11 16 -5 11
13 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 11 18 -7 7
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 8 18 -10 10
15 Durango 9 6 9 -3 11
16 Tepatitlán 9 5 28 -23 3
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions