Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz

Prediction Audit: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Sep 25, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.23
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 60%
CA La Paz CA La Paz

AI correctly predicted the CA La Paz win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CA La Paz CA La Paz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices CA La Paz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CA La Paz -6.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 31.9% 28.4% +3.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.4% +3.1 pp Aligned
CA La Paz 38.5% 45.1% -6.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates CA La Paz's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CA La Paz win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on CA La Paz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CA La Paz higher (45.1% vs model 38.5%, 6.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CA La Paz win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · CA La Paz 38.5%
    • xG · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.23 — CA La Paz 1.37
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3.35 · Draw 3.60 · CA La Paz 2.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 28.4% · Draw 26.4% · CA La Paz 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3.35 · Draw 3.60 · CA La Paz 2.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 28.4% · Draw 26.4% · CA La Paz 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CA La Paz win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9560286

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CA La Paz win · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–3 CA La Paz
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.23 — CA La Paz 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +16.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monarcas 9 7 0 2 21
2 CA La Paz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 6 2 2 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 5 2 3 17
5 Piratas 10 4 3 3 15
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 4 3 3 15
7 Cancún 9 4 2 3 14
8 Tapatío 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorados 9 3 4 2 13
10 Venados FC 9 4 1 4 13
11 Durango 9 3 2 4 11
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 3 2 5 11
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 10
14 Tlaxcala 9 2 2 5 8
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 7
16 Tepatitlán 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 10 23 11 +12 20
2 Venados FC 9 22 19 +3 13
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 21 13 +8 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 21 15 +6 17
5 Monarcas 9 19 9 +10 21
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 19 18 +1 15
7 Cancún 9 17 11 +6 14
8 Dorados 9 17 13 +4 13
9 Tapatío 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Tlaxcala 9 14 21 -7 8
11 Piratas 10 12 10 +2 15
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 11 16 -5 11
13 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 11 18 -7 7
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 8 18 -10 10
15 Durango 9 6 9 -3 11
16 Tepatitlán 9 5 28 -23 3
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions