Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán

Prediction Audit: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Aug 14, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 64%
Tepatitlán Tepatitlán

The model missed the final outcome (Alebrijes de Oaxaca win 1–0).

The model had projected Tepatitlán at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tepatitlán Alebrijes de Oaxaca ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tepatitlán; match finished Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Market lesson

The full-time result was Alebrijes de Oaxaca win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.16 — Tepatitlán 1.44
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Alebrijes de Oaxaca win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3224773

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alebrijes de Oaxaca win · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Tepatitlán
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.16 — Tepatitlán 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monarcas 10 7 0 3 21
2 CA La Paz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 6 2 2 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 5 2 3 17
5 Venados FC 10 5 1 4 16
6 Piratas 10 4 3 3 15
7 Correcaminos Uat 10 4 3 3 15
8 Cancún 10 4 2 4 14
9 Tapatío 9 4 2 3 14
10 Durango 10 4 2 4 14
11 Dorados 10 3 4 3 13
12 Tlaxcala 10 3 2 5 11
13 CDS Tampico Madero 10 3 2 5 11
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 10
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 7
16 Tepatitlán 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venados FC 10 24 20 +4 16
2 CA La Paz 10 23 11 +12 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 21 13 +8 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 21 15 +6 17
5 Monarcas 10 20 11 +9 21
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 19 18 +1 15
7 Cancún 10 18 15 +3 14
8 Tlaxcala 10 18 22 -4 11
9 Tapatío 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Dorados 10 17 14 +3 13
11 Piratas 10 12 10 +2 15
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 11 16 -5 11
13 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 11 18 -7 7
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 8 18 -10 10
15 Durango 10 7 9 -2 14
16 Tepatitlán 9 5 28 -23 3
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions