Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Prediction Audit: Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tlaxcala Tlaxcala
Aug 06, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca

The model missed the final outcome (Alebrijes de Oaxaca win 0–2).

The model had projected Tlaxcala at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tlaxcala Alebrijes de Oaxaca ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tlaxcala higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tlaxcala -23.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tlaxcala 38.0% 61.0% -23.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.8% +7.8 pp Model Higher
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32.4% 17.1% +15.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tlaxcala's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 23.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Alebrijes de Oaxaca win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tlaxcala; match finished Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tlaxcala by 23.0 percentage points (61.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tlaxcala 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32.4%
    • xG · Tlaxcala 1.36 — Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.24
  2. Aug 06, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tlaxcala 1.55 · Draw 4.33 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 5.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Tlaxcala 61.0% · Draw 21.8% · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 17.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tlaxcala 1.55 · Draw 4.33 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 5.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Tlaxcala 61.0% · Draw 21.8% · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 17.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 06, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alebrijes de Oaxaca win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2560681

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alebrijes de Oaxaca win · Tlaxcala 0–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-06 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Tlaxcala 1.36 — Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monarcas 9 7 0 2 21
2 CA La Paz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 6 2 2 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 5 2 3 17
5 Piratas 10 4 3 3 15
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 4 3 3 15
7 Cancún 9 4 2 3 14
8 Tapatío 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorados 9 3 4 2 13
10 Venados FC 9 4 1 4 13
11 Durango 9 3 2 4 11
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 3 2 5 11
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 10
14 Tlaxcala 9 2 2 5 8
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 7
16 Tepatitlán 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 10 23 11 +12 20
2 Venados FC 9 22 19 +3 13
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 21 13 +8 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 21 15 +6 17
5 Monarcas 9 19 9 +10 21
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 19 18 +1 15
7 Cancún 9 17 11 +6 14
8 Dorados 9 17 13 +4 13
9 Tapatío 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Tlaxcala 9 14 21 -7 8
11 Piratas 10 12 10 +2 15
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 11 16 -5 11
13 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 11 18 -7 7
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 8 18 -10 10
15 Durango 9 6 9 -3 11
16 Tepatitlán 9 5 28 -23 3
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions