Predictions / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town

Prediction Audit: llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

llanelli AFC llanelli AFC
Aug 28, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 68%
Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected llanelli AFC at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 llanelli AFC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Carmarthen Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Carmarthen Town -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
llanelli AFC 39.0% 27.3% +11.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.5% 23.0% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Carmarthen Town 31.5% 49.7% -18.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Carmarthen Town's win probability at 49.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Carmarthen Town than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned llanelli AFC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on llanelli AFC by 18.2 percentage points (57.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · llanelli AFC 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Carmarthen Town 31.5%
    • xG · llanelli AFC 1.38 — Carmarthen Town 1.22
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · llanelli AFC 3.31 · Draw 3.93 · Carmarthen Town 1.82
    • Implied 1X2 · llanelli AFC 27.3% · Draw 23.0% · Carmarthen Town 49.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · llanelli AFC 3.31 · Draw 3.93 · Carmarthen Town 1.82
    • Implied 1X2 · llanelli AFC 27.3% · Draw 23.0% · Carmarthen Town 49.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4943655

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · llanelli AFC 2–2 Carmarthen Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): llanelli AFC 1.38 — Carmarthen Town 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 6 5 1 0 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 5 0 1 15
3 Treowen Stars 7 4 1 2 13
4 Pontypridd Town 6 4 1 1 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 11
7 Caerau (Ely) 7 3 1 3 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic 7 2 2 3 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 6
14 Pontardawe Town 6 1 0 5 3
15 llanelli AFC 8 0 2 6 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 6 22 5 +17 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 19 7 +12 15
3 Carmarthen Town 7 17 16 +1 11
4 Treowen Stars 7 16 10 +6 13
5 Pontypridd Town 6 16 11 +5 13
6 Caerau (Ely) 7 16 17 -1 10
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 14 13 +1 9
8 Afan Lido 8 13 15 -2 10
9 Newport City 5 9 5 +4 6
10 Baglan Dragons 8 8 8 0 13
11 Cardiff Draconians 5 7 8 -1 7
12 Caerphilly Athletic 7 7 12 -5 8
13 Ynyshir Albions 6 6 5 +1 9
14 llanelli AFC 8 6 23 -17 2
15 Pontardawe Town 6 5 13 -8 3
16 Llantwit Major 5 2 15 -13 1
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions