Predictions / Football / Scotland. Football League - Lowland League / Renfrew vs Celtic II

Prediction Audit: Renfrew vs Celtic II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Renfrew
Aug 08, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.32
5 1.28
xG Accuracy: 23%
Celtic II Celtic II

The model missed the final outcome (Celtic II win 3–5).

The model had projected Renfrew at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Renfrew Celtic II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Renfrew; match finished Celtic II

Market lesson

The full-time result was Celtic II win 3–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Renfrew 1.32 — Celtic II 1.28
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Celtic II win · 3–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2819568

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Celtic II win · Renfrew 3–5 Celtic II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Football League - Lowland League
  • Fixture: Renfrew vs Celtic II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Renfrew 1.32 — Celtic II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Football League - Lowland League Football League - Lowland League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tranent Juniors 8 8 0 0 24
2 Kilwinning Rangers 9 7 0 2 21
3 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 9 7 0 2 21
4 Clydebank 9 6 2 1 20
5 Pollok 9 6 2 1 20
6 Auchinleck Talbot 9 6 1 2 19
7 Linlithgow Rose 9 6 1 2 19
8 Brechin 8 6 1 1 19
9 Broxburn Athletic 8 6 1 1 19
10 Largs Thistle 9 6 1 2 19
11 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 6 0 3 18
12 Celtic II 10 5 2 3 17
13 Caledonian Braves 9 5 1 3 16
14 Lochee United 9 5 1 3 16
15 Johnstone Burgh 8 4 3 1 15
16 Cumnock Juniors 8 4 2 2 14
17 Civil Service Strollers 9 4 1 4 13
18 Bo'ness United 9 4 1 4 13
19 Troon FC 9 4 0 5 12
20 Cumbernauld Colts 10 2 4 4 10
21 East Stirlingshire 9 3 1 5 10
22 Cowdenbeath 9 3 0 6 9
23 Musselburgh Athletic 9 2 2 5 8
24 Albion Rovers 9 2 2 5 8
25 Beith 9 2 2 5 8
26 Gretna 2008 10 2 1 7 7
27 Berwick Rangers 9 1 2 6 5
28 Dunipace 8 1 1 6 4
29 Renfrew 8 1 1 6 4
30 Newton Stewart 8 1 1 6 4
31 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 1 0 8 3
32 Stirling University 9 1 0 8 3
33 Dalbeattie Star 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Clydebank 9 32 18 +14 20
2 Auchinleck Talbot 9 31 9 +22 19
3 Kilwinning Rangers 9 28 13 +15 21
4 Celtic II 10 28 19 +9 17
5 Caledonian Braves 9 26 21 +5 16
6 Linlithgow Rose 9 25 11 +14 19
7 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 23 9 +14 18
8 Pollok 9 21 12 +9 20
9 Cumnock Juniors 8 21 14 +7 14
10 Lochee United 9 20 15 +5 16
11 Cumbernauld Colts 10 20 23 -3 10
12 Gretna 2008 10 20 32 -12 7
13 Johnstone Burgh 8 19 13 +6 15
14 Troon FC 9 18 15 +3 12
15 Tranent Juniors 8 17 4 +13 24
16 Brechin 8 17 10 +7 19
17 Bo'ness United 9 16 18 -2 13
18 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 9 14 10 +4 21
19 Broxburn Athletic 8 13 7 +6 19
20 Largs Thistle 9 13 9 +4 19
21 Civil Service Strollers 9 13 14 -1 13
22 Cowdenbeath 9 13 15 -2 9
23 East Stirlingshire 9 13 19 -6 10
24 Beith 9 13 24 -11 8
25 Renfrew 8 13 26 -13 4
26 Musselburgh Athletic 9 9 14 -5 8
27 Albion Rovers 9 9 16 -7 8
28 Berwick Rangers 9 9 17 -8 5
29 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 9 22 -13 3
30 Stirling University 9 9 24 -15 3
31 Newton Stewart 8 9 32 -23 4
32 Dunipace 8 6 17 -11 4
33 Dalbeattie Star 9 5 30 -25 1
Football League - Lowland League Scotland. Football League - Lowland League Predictions