Predictions / Football / Scotland. Football League - Lowland League / Beith vs Largs Thistle

Prediction Audit: Beith vs Largs Thistle Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Beith Beith
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Largs Thistle

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Beith at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Beith Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Beith; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Beith 1.32 — Largs Thistle 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10098511

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Beith 1–1 Largs Thistle
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Football League - Lowland League
  • Fixture: Beith vs Largs Thistle
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Beith 1.32 — Largs Thistle 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Football League - Lowland League Football League - Lowland League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kilwinning Rangers 10 8 0 2 24
2 Tranent Juniors 8 8 0 0 24
3 Largs Thistle 10 7 1 2 22
4 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 9 7 0 2 21
5 Clydebank 9 6 2 1 20
6 Pollok 9 6 2 1 20
7 Auchinleck Talbot 10 6 1 3 19
8 Linlithgow Rose 9 6 1 2 19
9 Brechin 8 6 1 1 19
10 Broxburn Athletic 8 6 1 1 19
11 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 6 0 3 18
12 Cumnock Juniors 9 5 2 2 17
13 Celtic II 10 5 2 3 17
14 Caledonian Braves 9 5 1 3 16
15 Lochee United 9 5 1 3 16
16 Johnstone Burgh 9 4 3 2 15
17 Civil Service Strollers 9 4 1 4 13
18 Bo'ness United 9 4 1 4 13
19 Troon FC 10 4 0 6 12
20 Cumbernauld Colts 10 2 4 4 10
21 East Stirlingshire 9 3 1 5 10
22 Cowdenbeath 9 3 0 6 9
23 Musselburgh Athletic 9 2 2 5 8
24 Albion Rovers 9 2 2 5 8
25 Beith 10 2 2 6 8
26 Renfrew 9 2 1 6 7
27 Gretna 2008 10 2 1 7 7
28 Berwick Rangers 9 1 2 6 5
29 Dunipace 8 1 1 6 4
30 Newton Stewart 8 1 1 6 4
31 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 1 0 8 3
32 Stirling University 9 1 0 8 3
33 Dalbeattie Star 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Clydebank 9 32 18 +14 20
2 Auchinleck Talbot 10 31 12 +19 19
3 Kilwinning Rangers 10 31 13 +18 24
4 Celtic II 10 28 19 +9 17
5 Caledonian Braves 9 26 21 +5 16
6 Linlithgow Rose 9 25 11 +14 19
7 Cumnock Juniors 9 25 14 +11 17
8 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 23 9 +14 18
9 Pollok 9 21 12 +9 20
10 Lochee United 9 20 15 +5 16
11 Cumbernauld Colts 10 20 23 -3 10
12 Gretna 2008 10 20 32 -12 7
13 Johnstone Burgh 9 19 14 +5 15
14 Troon FC 10 18 19 -1 12
15 Tranent Juniors 8 17 4 +13 24
16 Brechin 8 17 10 +7 19
17 Bo'ness United 9 16 18 -2 13
18 Renfrew 9 16 26 -10 7
19 Largs Thistle 10 14 9 +5 22
20 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 9 14 10 +4 21
21 Broxburn Athletic 8 13 7 +6 19
22 Civil Service Strollers 9 13 14 -1 13
23 Cowdenbeath 9 13 15 -2 9
24 East Stirlingshire 9 13 19 -6 10
25 Beith 10 13 27 -14 8
26 Musselburgh Athletic 9 9 14 -5 8
27 Albion Rovers 9 9 16 -7 8
28 Berwick Rangers 9 9 17 -8 5
29 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 9 22 -13 3
30 Stirling University 9 9 24 -15 3
31 Newton Stewart 8 9 32 -23 4
32 Dunipace 8 6 17 -11 4
33 Dalbeattie Star 9 5 30 -25 1
Football League - Lowland League Scotland. Football League - Lowland League Predictions