Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Extremadura 1924 vs Racing Ferrol

Prediction Audit: Extremadura 1924 vs Racing Ferrol Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Extremadura 1924 Extremadura 1924
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol

AI correctly predicted the Extremadura 1924 win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Extremadura 1924 Extremadura 1924 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Extremadura 1924 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Extremadura 1924 -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Extremadura 1924 37.5% 44.9% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.1% +0.5 pp Aligned
Racing Ferrol 32.9% 26.0% +6.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Extremadura 1924's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Extremadura 1924 win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Extremadura 1924. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Extremadura 1924 higher (44.9% vs model 37.5%, 7.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Extremadura 1924 win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Extremadura 1924 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Racing Ferrol 32.9%
    • xG · Extremadura 1924 1.35 — Racing Ferrol 1.25
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Extremadura 1924 2.04 · Draw 3.15 · Racing Ferrol 3.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Extremadura 1924 44.9% · Draw 29.1% · Racing Ferrol 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Extremadura 1924 2.04 · Draw 3.15 · Racing Ferrol 3.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Extremadura 1924 44.9% · Draw 29.1% · Racing Ferrol 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Extremadura 1924 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6369482

Closing Odds 2.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Extremadura 1924 win · Extremadura 1924 1–0 Racing Ferrol
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Extremadura 1924 vs Racing Ferrol
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Extremadura 1924 1.35 — Racing Ferrol 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UD Logroñés 4 3 1 0 10
2 Cacereño 4 3 1 0 10
3 Lugo 4 3 1 0 10
4 Athletic Club II 4 2 2 0 8
5 Real Unión 4 2 1 1 7
6 Mirandes 4 2 1 1 7
7 Pontevedra 4 2 1 1 7
8 Racing Ferrol 4 2 1 1 7
9 Ponferradina 4 2 1 1 7
10 Cultural Leonesa 4 2 1 1 7
11 Deportivo La Coruña II 4 1 2 1 5
12 Real Avilés 4 1 1 2 4
13 CD Coria 4 1 1 2 4
14 Zamora 4 1 1 2 4
15 Barakaldo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mérida AD 4 1 0 3 3
17 Extremadura 1924 4 1 0 3 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 1 0 3 3
19 Arenas Getxo 4 0 1 3 1
20 UD Ourense 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Unión 4 12 8 +4 7
2 UD Logroñés 4 8 3 +5 10
3 Athletic Club II 4 8 5 +3 8
4 Mirandes 4 8 6 +2 7
5 Pontevedra 4 7 5 +2 7
6 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 7 11 -4 3
7 Cacereño 4 6 1 +5 10
8 Lugo 4 6 2 +4 10
9 CD Coria 4 6 7 -1 4
10 Racing Ferrol 4 5 4 +1 7
11 Deportivo La Coruña II 4 5 5 0 5
12 Real Avilés 4 5 5 0 4
13 Zamora 4 5 6 -1 4
14 Mérida AD 4 4 6 -2 3
15 Ponferradina 4 3 2 +1 7
16 Arenas Getxo 4 3 10 -7 1
17 Cultural Leonesa 4 2 1 +1 7
18 Extremadura 1924 4 2 4 -2 3
19 Barakaldo 4 2 5 -3 4
20 UD Ourense 4 1 9 -8 0
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions