Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés

Prediction Audit: Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mérida AD Mérida AD
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:15
3 1.27
5 1.33
xG Accuracy: 23%
UD Logroñés UD Logroñés

AI correctly predicted the UD Logroñés win.

The match finished 3–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UD Logroñés UD Logroñés ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: UD Logroñés -1.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mérida AD 33.8% 33.5% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.8% +0.8 pp Aligned
UD Logroñés 36.6% 37.7% -1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (UD Logroñés win 3–5).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (UD Logroñés win 3–5).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mérida AD 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · UD Logroñés 36.6%
    • xG · Mérida AD 1.27 — UD Logroñés 1.33
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mérida AD 2.73 · Draw 3.18 · UD Logroñés 2.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Mérida AD 33.5% · Draw 28.8% · UD Logroñés 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mérida AD 2.73 · Draw 3.18 · UD Logroñés 2.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Mérida AD 33.5% · Draw 28.8% · UD Logroñés 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result UD Logroñés win · 3–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10107558

Closing Odds 2.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UD Logroñés win · Mérida AD 3–5 UD Logroñés
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Mérida AD 1.27 — UD Logroñés 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +4.0 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 5 4 1 0 13
2 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 3 1 0 10
4 Cacereño 4 3 1 0 10
5 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
6 Cultural Leonesa 5 2 2 1 8
7 Real Unión 5 2 1 2 7
8 Mirandes 4 2 1 1 7
9 Pontevedra 4 2 1 1 7
10 Ponferradina 4 2 1 1 7
11 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 2 1 2 7
13 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
14 Real Avilés 4 1 1 2 4
15 Barakaldo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mérida AD 4 1 0 3 3
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 1 0 3 3
19 Arenas Getxo 5 0 1 4 1
20 UD Ourense 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Unión 5 12 10 +2 7
2 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Mirandes 4 8 6 +2 7
5 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
6 Lugo 5 7 2 +5 13
7 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
8 Pontevedra 4 7 5 +2 7
9 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 7 11 -4 3
10 Cacereño 4 6 1 +5 10
11 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 5 5 0 7
13 Real Avilés 4 5 5 0 4
14 Cultural Leonesa 5 4 3 +1 8
15 Mérida AD 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Ponferradina 4 3 2 +1 7
17 Arenas Getxo 5 3 13 -10 1
18 Barakaldo 4 2 5 -3 4
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 4 1 9 -8 0
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions