Prediction Audit: Girona vs Albacete Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Girona

Sep 25, 2026 - 18:30

2 1.11

0 1.13

xG Accuracy: 57%

Albacete

AI correctly predicted the Girona win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Girona Girona ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Girona	37.6%	63.5%	-25.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	31.1%	21.0%	+10.1 pp	Model Edge
Albacete	31.3%	15.5%	+15.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Girona's win probability at 63.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.6%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Girona win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Girona higher (63.5% vs model 37.6%, 25.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Girona win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 25, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Girona 37.6% · Draw 31.1% · Albacete 31.3%
- xG · Girona 1.11 — Albacete 1.13
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Girona 1.52 · Draw 4.60 · Albacete 6.24
- Implied 1X2 · Girona 63.5% · Draw 21.0% · Albacete 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Girona 1.52 · Draw 4.60 · Albacete 6.24
- Implied 1X2 · Girona 63.5% · Draw 21.0% · Albacete 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Girona win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (26 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9574839

Closing Odds 1.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Girona win · Girona 2–0 Albacete

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Girona vs Albacete
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 31.1% · Away 31.3%
xG (showing): Girona 1.11 — Albacete 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 61.2% · Over 2.5 38.8%); BTTS No (Yes 47.1% · No 52.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 47.1% · No 52.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Castellón	6	5	1	0	16
2	Eibar	6	5	0	1	15
3	Girona	7	4	1	2	13
4	Mallorca	6	4	1	1	13
5	Almeria	6	4	0	2	12
6	Sabadell	7	3	3	1	12
7	Burgos	6	3	2	1	11
8	Leganes	6	3	2	1	11
9	Tenerife	7	3	2	2	11
10	Sporting Gijon	6	3	1	2	10
11	Las Palmas	6	3	1	2	10
12	Oviedo	6	2	2	2	8
13	Granada CF	7	2	2	3	8
14	Real Sociedad II	7	2	2	3	8
15	Celta de Vigo II	7	2	2	3	8
16	FC Andorra	7	2	0	5	6
17	Cordoba	6	2	0	4	6
18	Eldense	6	1	2	3	5
19	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	5
20	Cadiz	7	0	4	3	4
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	1	1	5	4
22	Albacete	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Girona	7	14	8	+6	13
2	Castellón	6	12	2	+10	16
3	Eibar	6	12	4	+8	15
4	FC Andorra	7	12	15	-3	6
5	Almeria	6	10	4	+6	12
6	Burgos	6	10	7	+3	11
7	Granada CF	7	10	11	-1	8
8	Real Sociedad II	7	9	10	-1	8
9	Cordoba	6	9	13	-4	6
10	Mallorca	6	8	2	+6	13
11	Sabadell	7	8	6	+2	12
12	Las Palmas	6	8	8	0	10
13	Tenerife	7	8	9	-1	11
14	Celta de Vigo II	7	8	11	-3	8
15	Cadiz	7	7	10	-3	4
16	Leganes	6	6	5	+1	11
17	AD Ceuta FC	7	6	17	-11	4
18	Sporting Gijon	6	5	4	+1	10
19	Oviedo	6	5	4	+1	8
20	Eldense	6	4	8	-4	5
21	Albacete	7	4	12	-8	1
22	Valladolid	6	3	8	-5	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cadiz	7	1.6	0.6	+1.0	4
2	Celta de Vigo II	7	0.6	1.6	-1.0	8
3	Castellón	6	—	—	—	16
4	Eibar	6	—	—	—	15
5	Girona	7	—	—	—	13
6	Mallorca	6	—	—	—	13
7	Almeria	6	—	—	—	12
8	Sabadell	7	—	—	—	12
9	Burgos	6	—	—	—	11
10	Leganes	6	—	—	—	11
11	Tenerife	7	—	—	—	11
12	Sporting Gijon	6	—	—	—	10
13	Las Palmas	6	—	—	—	10
14	Oviedo	6	—	—	—	8
15	Granada CF	7	—	—	—	8
16	Real Sociedad II	7	—	—	—	8
17	FC Andorra	7	—	—	—	6
18	Cordoba	6	—	—	—	6
19	Eldense	6	—	—	—	5
20	Valladolid	6	—	—	—	5
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	—	—	—	4
22	Albacete	7	—	—	—	1