Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Las Palmas vs Leganes

Prediction Audit: Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Las Palmas Las Palmas
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.25
0 0.99
xG Accuracy: 54%
Leganes Leganes

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Las Palmas at 40.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Las Palmas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Las Palmas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Las Palmas -6.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Las Palmas 40.5% 46.5% -6.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.9% 28.6% +3.3 pp Aligned
Leganes 27.6% 24.8% +2.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Las Palmas's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.5%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Las Palmas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Las Palmas; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Las Palmas by 6.0 percentage points (46.5% vs model 40.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Las Palmas 40.5% · Draw 31.9% · Leganes 27.6%
    • xG · Las Palmas 1.25 — Leganes 0.99
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Las Palmas 2.08 · Draw 3.38 · Leganes 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Las Palmas 46.5% · Draw 28.6% · Leganes 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Las Palmas 2.08 · Draw 3.38 · Leganes 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Las Palmas 46.5% · Draw 28.6% · Leganes 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5928375

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Las Palmas 0–0 Leganes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Las Palmas vs Leganes
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 31.9% · Away 27.6%
  • xG (showing): Las Palmas 1.25 — Leganes 0.99 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 61.2% · Over 2.5 38.8%); BTTS No (Yes 46.6% · No 53.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.6% · No 53.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón 7 6 1 0 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 12
8 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10
12 Sporting Gijon 7 3 1 3 10
13 Granada CF 7 2 2 3 8
14 Real Sociedad II 7 2 2 3 8
15 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8
16 Celta de Vigo II 7 2 2 3 8
17 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 8
18 FC Andorra 7 2 0 5 6
19 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 6
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 4
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 1 1 5 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eibar 7 15 6 +9 18
2 Castellón 7 14 2 +12 19
3 Girona 7 14 8 +6 13
4 FC Andorra 7 12 15 -3 6
5 Almeria 7 11 4 +7 15
6 Burgos 7 11 7 +4 14
7 Las Palmas 7 10 11 -1 10
8 Granada CF 7 10 11 -1 8
9 Cordoba 7 10 16 -6 6
10 Real Sociedad II 7 9 10 -1 8
11 Mallorca 7 8 3 +5 13
12 Sabadell 7 8 6 +2 12
13 Oviedo 8 8 8 0 11
14 Tenerife 7 8 9 -1 11
15 Eldense 8 8 10 -2 8
16 Celta de Vigo II 7 8 11 -3 8
17 Cadiz 7 7 10 -3 4
18 Leganes 7 6 7 -1 11
19 Valladolid 7 6 9 -3 8
20 AD Ceuta FC 7 6 17 -11 4
21 Sporting Gijon 7 5 6 -1 10
22 Albacete 7 4 12 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 7 1.6 0.6 +1.0 4
2 Celta de Vigo II 7 0.6 1.6 -1.0 8
3 Castellón 7 — — — 19
4 Eibar 7 — — — 18
5 Almeria 7 — — — 15
6 Burgos 7 — — — 14
7 Girona 7 — — — 13
8 Mallorca 7 — — — 13
9 Sabadell 7 — — — 12
10 Oviedo 8 — — — 11
11 Tenerife 7 — — — 11
12 Leganes 7 — — — 11
13 Las Palmas 7 — — — 10
14 Sporting Gijon 7 — — — 10
15 Granada CF 7 — — — 8
16 Real Sociedad II 7 — — — 8
17 Eldense 8 — — — 8
18 Valladolid 7 — — — 8
19 FC Andorra 7 — — — 6
20 Cordoba 7 — — — 6
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 — — — 4
22 Albacete 7 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions