AI correctly predicted the Castellón win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Castellón Castellón ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo II | 31.4% | 22.7% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 32.2% | 23.9% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Castellón | 36.4% | 53.3% | -16.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Castellón's win probability at 53.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.4%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Castellón win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Castellón than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Castellón higher (53.3% vs model 36.4%, 16.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Castellón win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Celta de Vigo II 31.4% · Draw 32.3% · Castellón 36.4%
- xG · Celta de Vigo II 1.07 — Castellón 1.17
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Celta de Vigo II 4.25 · Draw 4.03 · Castellón 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Celta de Vigo II 22.7% · Draw 23.9% · Castellón 53.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Celta de Vigo II 4.25 · Draw 4.03 · Castellón 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Celta de Vigo II 22.7% · Draw 23.9% · Castellón 53.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Castellón win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Mallorca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Tenerife | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Las Palmas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Almeria | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Eibar | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Oviedo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Burgos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Sabadell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Leganes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Girona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Sporting Gijon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Eldense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 | Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 21 | Albacete | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Girona | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Almeria | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Burgos | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 | FC Andorra | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Castellón | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Mallorca | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | Tenerife | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta de Vigo II | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Eibar | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Cadiz | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Oviedo | 5 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| 16 | Sabadell | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Leganes | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Eldense | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Albacete | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Sporting Gijon | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 21 | Valladolid | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cadiz | 5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Celta de Vigo II | 4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 3 | Castellón | 5 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 5 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 5 | Tenerife | 5 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 6 | Las Palmas | 5 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 7 | Almeria | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 8 | Eibar | 4 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 10 | Burgos | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 12 | Granada CF | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 14 | Leganes | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 15 | Girona | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 16 | Sporting Gijon | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 17 | Eldense | 5 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 18 | Valladolid | 5 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 5 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Cordoba | 5 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Albacete | 5 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 5 | — | — | — | 0 |
