Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Eldense vs Eibar

Prediction Audit: Eldense vs Eibar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eldense Eldense
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.03
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 80%
Eibar Eibar

AI correctly predicted the Eibar win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eibar Eibar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Eldense -2.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Eldense 29.4% 31.7% -2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 32.1% 30.6% +1.5 pp Aligned
Eibar 38.4% 37.6% +0.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Eibar win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Eibar win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:54 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Eldense 29.4% · Draw 32.1% · Eibar 38.5%
    • xG · Eldense 1.03 — Eibar 1.21
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Eldense 3.05 · Draw 3.16 · Eibar 2.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Eldense 31.7% · Draw 30.6% · Eibar 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Eldense 3.05 · Draw 3.16 · Eibar 2.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Eldense 31.7% · Draw 30.6% · Eibar 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Eibar win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 88/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704333

Closing Odds 3.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Eibar win · Eldense 1–2 Eibar
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Eldense vs Eibar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Eldense 1.03 — Eibar 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón 6 5 1 0 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 13
4 Girona 6 3 1 2 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 10
6 Sporting Gijon 6 3 1 2 10
7 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 10
8 Almeria 5 3 0 2 9
9 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 8
10 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8
11 Real Sociedad II 6 2 2 2 8
12 Granada CF 5 2 2 1 8
13 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 8
14 Leganes 5 2 2 1 8
15 Celta de Vigo II 5 2 1 2 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 5
18 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 4
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 3
20 FC Andorra 6 1 0 5 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 1
22 AD Ceuta FC 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón 6 12 2 +10 16
2 Eibar 6 12 4 +8 15
3 Girona 6 12 8 +4 10
4 Cordoba 6 9 13 -4 6
5 FC Andorra 6 9 13 -4 3
6 Mallorca 6 8 2 +6 13
7 Almeria 5 8 4 +4 9
8 Burgos 5 8 6 +2 8
9 Real Sociedad II 6 8 7 +1 8
10 Las Palmas 5 7 6 +1 10
11 Tenerife 6 7 8 -1 10
12 Celta de Vigo II 5 7 8 -1 7
13 Granada CF 5 6 5 +1 8
14 Cadiz 6 6 9 -3 3
15 Sporting Gijon 6 5 4 +1 10
16 Oviedo 5 4 1 +3 8
17 Sabadell 5 4 4 0 8
18 Eldense 6 4 8 -4 5
19 Albacete 6 4 10 -6 1
20 Leganes 5 3 3 0 8
21 Valladolid 5 2 7 -5 4
22 AD Ceuta FC 5 2 15 -13 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 6 1.6 0.6 +1.0 3
2 Celta de Vigo II 5 0.6 1.6 -1.0 7
3 Castellón 6 — — — 16
4 Eibar 6 — — — 15
5 Mallorca 6 — — — 13
6 Girona 6 — — — 10
7 Las Palmas 5 — — — 10
8 Sporting Gijon 6 — — — 10
9 Tenerife 6 — — — 10
10 Almeria 5 — — — 9
11 Oviedo 5 — — — 8
12 Burgos 5 — — — 8
13 Real Sociedad II 6 — — — 8
14 Granada CF 5 — — — 8
15 Sabadell 5 — — — 8
16 Leganes 5 — — — 8
17 Cordoba 6 — — — 6
18 Eldense 6 — — — 5
19 Valladolid 5 — — — 4
20 FC Andorra 6 — — — 3
21 Albacete 6 — — — 1
22 AD Ceuta FC 5 — — — 0
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions