Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Girona vs Leganes

Prediction Audit: Girona vs Leganes Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Girona Girona
Aug 16, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.67
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Leganes Leganes

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Girona at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Girona Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Girona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Girona -15.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Girona 45.3% 60.6% -15.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.0% 23.5% +3.5 pp Aligned
Leganes 27.7% 16.0% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Girona's win probability at 60.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Girona than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Girona; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Girona by 15.2 percentage points (60.5% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Girona 45.3% · Draw 27.0% · Leganes 27.7%
    • xG · Girona 1.67 — Leganes 1.27
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Girona 1.58 · Draw 4.08 · Leganes 5.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Girona 60.6% · Draw 23.5% · Leganes 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Girona 1.58 · Draw 4.08 · Leganes 5.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Girona 60.6% · Draw 23.5% · Leganes 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3612797

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Girona 1–1 Leganes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Girona vs Leganes
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 27.0% · Away 27.7%
  • xG (showing): Girona 1.67 — Leganes 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.8% · No 40.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.8% · No 40.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón 6 5 1 0 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 15
3 Girona 7 4 1 2 13
4 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 13
5 Almeria 6 4 0 2 12
6 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 12
7 Burgos 6 3 2 1 11
8 Leganes 6 3 2 1 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 11
10 Sporting Gijon 6 3 1 2 10
11 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 10
12 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 8
13 Granada CF 7 2 2 3 8
14 Real Sociedad II 7 2 2 3 8
15 Celta de Vigo II 7 2 2 3 8
16 FC Andorra 7 2 0 5 6
17 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 6
18 Eldense 6 1 2 3 5
19 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 4
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 1 1 5 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Girona 7 14 8 +6 13
2 Castellón 6 12 2 +10 16
3 Eibar 6 12 4 +8 15
4 FC Andorra 7 12 15 -3 6
5 Almeria 6 10 4 +6 12
6 Burgos 6 10 7 +3 11
7 Granada CF 7 10 11 -1 8
8 Real Sociedad II 7 9 10 -1 8
9 Cordoba 6 9 13 -4 6
10 Mallorca 6 8 2 +6 13
11 Sabadell 7 8 6 +2 12
12 Las Palmas 6 8 8 0 10
13 Tenerife 7 8 9 -1 11
14 Celta de Vigo II 7 8 11 -3 8
15 Cadiz 7 7 10 -3 4
16 Leganes 6 6 5 +1 11
17 AD Ceuta FC 7 6 17 -11 4
18 Sporting Gijon 6 5 4 +1 10
19 Oviedo 6 5 4 +1 8
20 Eldense 6 4 8 -4 5
21 Albacete 7 4 12 -8 1
22 Valladolid 6 3 8 -5 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 7 1.6 0.6 +1.0 4
2 Celta de Vigo II 7 0.6 1.6 -1.0 8
3 Castellón 6 — — — 16
4 Eibar 6 — — — 15
5 Girona 7 — — — 13
6 Mallorca 6 — — — 13
7 Almeria 6 — — — 12
8 Sabadell 7 — — — 12
9 Burgos 6 — — — 11
10 Leganes 6 — — — 11
11 Tenerife 7 — — — 11
12 Sporting Gijon 6 — — — 10
13 Las Palmas 6 — — — 10
14 Oviedo 6 — — — 8
15 Granada CF 7 — — — 8
16 Real Sociedad II 7 — — — 8
17 FC Andorra 7 — — — 6
18 Cordoba 6 — — — 6
19 Eldense 6 — — — 5
20 Valladolid 6 — — — 5
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 — — — 4
22 Albacete 7 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions