The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Livyi Bereh at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Livyi Bereh Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kryvbas KR | 34.0% | 45.3% | -11.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.9% | 25.8% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Livyi Bereh | 38.0% | 28.9% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Kryvbas KR's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.0%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kryvbas KR than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Livyi Bereh; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Livyi Bereh by 11.2 percentage points (49.2% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kryvbas KR 34.0% · Draw 27.9% · Livyi Bereh 38.0%
- xG · Kryvbas KR 1.39 — Livyi Bereh 1.48
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kryvbas KR 2.05 · Draw 3.59 · Livyi Bereh 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · Kryvbas KR 45.3% · Draw 25.8% · Livyi Bereh 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kryvbas KR 2.05 · Draw 3.59 · Livyi Bereh 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · Kryvbas KR 45.3% · Draw 25.8% · Livyi Bereh 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Polessya | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Bukovyna | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Obolon'-Brovar | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Polessya | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kryvbas KR | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 5 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | LNZ Cherkasy | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Livyi Bereh | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 5 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 2 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 6 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 3 |
