Prediction Audit: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Livyi Bereh Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.41

2 1.77

xG Accuracy: 64%

Livyi Bereh

AI correctly predicted the Livyi Bereh win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Livyi Bereh Livyi Bereh ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	29.4%	44.0%	-14.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.8%	27.6%	-1.8 pp	Aligned
Livyi Bereh	44.8%	28.4%	+16.4 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Livyi Bereh's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Livyi Bereh win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Livyi Bereh.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Livyi Bereh attacking xG significantly stronger (1.77 vs 1.41)
Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Livyi Bereh more conservatively (28.4% vs model 44.8%, 16.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Livyi Bereh win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29.4% · Draw 25.8% · Livyi Bereh 44.8%
- xG · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.41 — Livyi Bereh 1.77
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 · Draw 3.37 · Livyi Bereh 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44.0% · Draw 27.6% · Livyi Bereh 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 · Draw 3.37 · Livyi Bereh 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44.0% · Draw 27.6% · Livyi Bereh 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Livyi Bereh win · 0–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8697712

Closing Odds 3.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Livyi Bereh win · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–2 Livyi Bereh

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Livyi Bereh
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.4% · Draw 25.8% · Away 44.8%
xG (showing): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.41 — Livyi Bereh 1.77 (total xG ≈ 3.18)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 61.6% · Implied: 45.3% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +29.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 64.1% · No 35.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Polessya	7	6	0	1	18
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	7	6	0	1	18
3	Karpaty	7	4	2	1	14
4	Dynamo Kyiv	6	4	1	1	13
5	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv	6	4	0	2	12
6	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	7	2	2	3	8
7	LNZ Cherkasy	7	2	2	3	8
8	Zorya Luhansk	7	2	2	3	8
9	Livyi Bereh	6	1	4	1	7
10	Bukovyna	7	1	4	2	7
11	Veres Rivne	6	1	3	2	6
12	Chornomorets	6	1	2	3	5
13	Kolos Kovalivka	6	1	2	3	5
14	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	0	4	3	4
16	Kudrivka	6	0	2	4	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	7	15	4	+11	18
2	Polessya	7	15	5	+10	18
3	Karpaty	7	15	5	+10	14
4	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv	6	12	4	+8	12
5	Dynamo Kyiv	6	9	5	+4	13
6	Kryvbas KR	6	7	10	-3	5
7	Zorya Luhansk	7	7	11	-4	8
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	7	6	7	-1	8
9	Kolos Kovalivka	6	6	10	-4	5
10	LNZ Cherkasy	7	5	8	-3	8
11	Livyi Bereh	6	4	3	+1	7
12	Veres Rivne	6	4	5	-1	6
13	Bukovyna	7	4	6	-2	7
14	Kudrivka	6	4	16	-12	2
15	Chornomorets	6	3	7	-4	5
16	Obolon'-Brovar	7	2	12	-10	4