AI correctly predicted the Northampton win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Northampton Northampton ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 40.6% | 54.4% | -13.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.9% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Newport County | 33.9% | 19.8% | +14.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Newport County's win probability at 33.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.8%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Northampton win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Newport County.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Northampton more conservatively (26.5% vs model 40.6%, 14.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Northampton win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Northampton 40.6% · Draw 25.5% · Newport County 33.9%
- xG · Northampton 1.73 — Newport County 1.57
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Northampton 1.75 · Draw 3.68 · Newport County 4.82
- Implied 1X2 · Northampton 54.4% · Draw 25.9% · Newport County 19.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Northampton 1.75 · Draw 3.68 · Newport County 4.82
- Implied 1X2 · Northampton 54.4% · Draw 25.9% · Newport County 19.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Northampton win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League Two — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | York | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Crewe | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Rotherham | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Colchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Oldham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 21 | Accrington ST | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Cheltenham | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Grimsby | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Walsall | 7 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Rotherham | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Newport County | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Accrington ST | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Salford City | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Oldham | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Colchester | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Crewe | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 19 | Rochdale | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 20 | Crawley Town | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 22 | Exeter City | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 | Northampton | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accrington ST | 7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 6 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 3 | Rotherham | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +1.5 | 9 |
| 4 | Northampton | 7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | +1.3 | 6 |
| 5 | Barnet | 7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | +1.0 | 15 |
| 6 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | +0.9 | 7 |
| 7 | Crewe | 7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 9 | Oldham | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 12 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 12 | York | 7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 13 | Chesterfield | 7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 14 | Port Vale | 7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 5 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 6 |
| 16 | Tranmere | 7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 10 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 4 |
| 18 | Salford City | 7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Cheltenham | 7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 12 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 12 |
| 22 | Colchester | 7 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | 9 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 7 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 24 | Newport County | 7 | — | — | — | 6 |
