Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
No Primary Bet
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Model snapshot generated
Risk factors
- ✗Primary conditions not fully met
Market Intelligence
No market odds available
Market Intelligence tracks line moves once bookmaker prices are available.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Forecast pending
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Prediction Generated
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Market ComparedEntry Pending
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Validation Passed
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Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
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CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 10 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 10 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 4 | Brentford | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 10 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 7 | Ipswich | 10 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 10 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 10 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Manchester United | 10 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Everton | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Leeds | 10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 15 | Tottenham | 10 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 | Fulham | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 12.9 | 4.7 | +8.2 | 27 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 14.0 | 6.6 | +7.4 | 21 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 10 | 14.3 | 8.6 | +5.7 | 15 |
| 4 | Brighton | 10 | 12.9 | 8.4 | +4.5 | 22 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 11.5 | 8.4 | +3.1 | 9 |
| 6 | Brentford | 10 | 10.7 | 10.0 | +0.7 | 14 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 10 | 11.3 | 10.7 | +0.6 | 18 |
| 8 | Fulham | 10 | 9.1 | 8.5 | +0.6 | 10 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 10 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 16 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 12 |
| 11 | Manchester United | 10 | 14.9 | 15.2 | -0.3 | 8 |
| 12 | Leeds | 10 | 7.7 | 8.8 | -1.1 | 14 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 10 | 8.6 | 10.2 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 14 | Everton | 10 | 10.5 | 12.2 | -1.7 | 16 |
| 15 | Newcastle | 10 | 8.6 | 11.2 | -2.6 | 12 |
| 16 | Coventry | 10 | 6.5 | 9.2 | -2.7 | 9 |
| 17 | Hull City | 10 | 6.3 | 10.4 | -4.1 | 11 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 10.1 | 15.2 | -5.1 | 7 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 10 | 9.5 | 14.8 | -5.3 | 13 |
| 20 | Ipswich | 10 | 9.6 | 16.2 | -6.6 | 11 |
