Prediction Audit: ST Mirren vs Motherwell Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ST Mirren

Aug 30, 2026 - 14:00

3 1.98

3 1.13

xG Accuracy: 45%

Motherwell

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected ST Mirren at 49.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 ST Mirren Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
ST Mirren	49.9%	36.0%	+14.0 pp	Model Edge
Draw	26.0%	29.4%	-3.4 pp	Aligned
Motherwell	24.1%	34.7%	-10.6 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates ST Mirren's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.0%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ST Mirren.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.11) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned ST Mirren; match finished Draw
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ST Mirren by 14.0 percentage points (35.9% vs model 49.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 30, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ST Mirren 50.0% · Draw 26.0% · Motherwell 24.1%
- xG · ST Mirren 1.98 — Motherwell 1.13
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ST Mirren 2.69 · Draw 3.29 · Motherwell 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · ST Mirren 36.0% · Draw 29.4% · Motherwell 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · ST Mirren 2.69 · Draw 3.29 · Motherwell 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · ST Mirren 36.0% · Draw 29.4% · Motherwell 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (14 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5295429

Closing Odds 2.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · ST Mirren 3–3 Motherwell

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premiership
Fixture: ST Mirren vs Motherwell
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): ST Mirren 1.98 — Motherwell 1.13 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Celtic	7	6	0	1	18
2	Rangers	7	5	1	1	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	4	1	2	13
4	Dundee	7	3	1	3	10
5	ST Mirren	7	3	1	3	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	2	2	3	8
7	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	2	2	3	8
9	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	8
10	Hibernian	7	2	1	4	7
11	Falkirk	7	1	3	3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	7	14	4	+10	18
2	Heart Of Midlothian	7	14	8	+6	13
3	Dundee	7	9	7	+2	10
4	ST Johnstone	7	9	10	-1	8
5	Dundee Utd	7	9	11	-2	8
6	Motherwell	7	9	11	-2	8
7	Rangers	7	8	4	+4	16
8	ST Mirren	7	8	9	-1	10
9	Hibernian	7	8	11	-3	7
10	Aberdeen	7	7	8	-1	8
11	Falkirk	7	6	9	-3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	6	15	-9	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	7	11.1	1.9	+9.2	18
2	Heart Of Midlothian	7	7.1	4.5	+2.6	13
3	Motherwell	7	7.2	4.8	+2.4	8
4	ST Mirren	7	6.2	4.7	+1.5	10
5	Rangers	7	5.3	3.8	+1.5	16
6	ST Johnstone	7	6.7	5.6	+1.1	8
7	Hibernian	7	7.8	7.3	+0.5	7
8	Dundee Utd	7	6.9	8.3	-1.4	8
9	Aberdeen	7	3.4	5.4	-2.0	8
10	Dundee	7	5.6	8.7	-3.1	10
11	Falkirk	7	1.7	5.3	-3.6	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	3.1	11.9	-8.8	5