Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro

Prediction Audit: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
Sep 26, 2026 - 23:07
0 1.43
2 1.02
xG Accuracy: 52%
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro

The model missed the final outcome (Club Queretaro win 0–2).

The model had projected Guadalajara Chivas at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guadalajara Chivas Club Queretaro ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Guadalajara Chivas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guadalajara Chivas -15.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guadalajara Chivas 44.8% 60.7% -15.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.9% 21.6% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Club Queretaro 25.3% 17.7% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Guadalajara Chivas's win probability at 60.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 15.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Club Queretaro win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Guadalajara Chivas than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Guadalajara Chivas; match finished Club Queretaro
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guadalajara Chivas by 15.8 percentage points (60.6% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 23:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guadalajara Chivas 44.9% · Draw 29.9% · Club Queretaro 25.3%
    • xG · Guadalajara Chivas 1.43 — Club Queretaro 1.02
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 22:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalajara Chivas 1.59 · Draw 4.47 · Club Queretaro 5.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara Chivas 60.7% · Draw 21.6% · Club Queretaro 17.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 23:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalajara Chivas 1.59 · Draw 4.47 · Club Queretaro 5.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara Chivas 60.7% · Draw 21.6% · Club Queretaro 17.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 23:07 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Club Queretaro win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10121455

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Club Queretaro win · Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Club Queretaro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 23:07:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.9% · Draw 29.9% · Away 25.3%
  • xG (showing): Guadalajara Chivas 1.43 — Club Queretaro 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.45)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.7% · Over 2.5 44.3%); BTTS No (Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
6 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
7 Leon 9 4 2 3 14
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 8
18 FC Juarez 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
3 Club America 8 17 8 +9 17
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
9 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
10 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
11 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
12 Leon 9 12 10 +2 14
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
15 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
17 Necaxa 9 10 16 -6 8
18 FC Juarez 9 6 23 -17 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Club Tijuana 9 8.2 3.2 +5.0 14
2 Cruz Azul 10 11.3 7.5 +3.8 16
3 Monterrey 9 9.8 6.2 +3.6 13
4 Club America 8 9.7 6.1 +3.6 17
5 Toluca 10 8.9 6.1 +2.8 20
6 Tigres UANL 10 9.7 7.3 +2.4 10
7 Guadalajara Chivas 10 8.1 5.8 +2.3 18
8 Necaxa 9 6.8 6.1 +0.7 8
9 Santos Laguna 10 10.1 9.7 +0.4 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 8.6 8.8 -0.2 17
11 Leon 9 8.7 9.4 -0.7 14
12 Puebla 10 7.3 8.9 -1.6 14
13 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 6.4 8.0 -1.6 12
14 Pachuca 10 7.4 9.2 -1.8 12
15 Atlas 10 6.6 9.5 -2.9 17
16 Atletico San Luis 10 7.8 11.1 -3.3 12
17 Atlante FC 10 6.3 10.1 -3.8 11
18 FC Juarez 9 4.7 13.4 -8.7 3
Liga MX Mexico. Liga MX Predictions