Prediction Audit: Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Necaxa

Sep 12, 2026 - 01:00

0 1.09

1 1.02

xG Accuracy: 74%

Puebla

The model missed the final outcome (Puebla win 0–1).

The model had projected Necaxa at 35.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Necaxa Puebla ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Necaxa	35.1%	46.7%	-11.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	33.4%	26.1%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher
Puebla	31.5%	27.1%	+4.4 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Necaxa's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.1%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Puebla win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Necaxa than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.11, 1 goals)
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Necaxa; match finished Puebla

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Necaxa by 11.6 percentage points (46.7% vs model 35.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 12, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Necaxa 35.1% · Draw 33.3% · Puebla 31.6%
- xG · Necaxa 1.09 — Puebla 1.02
Sep 12, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Necaxa 2.07 · Draw 3.70 · Puebla 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Necaxa 46.7% · Draw 26.1% · Puebla 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Necaxa 2.07 · Draw 3.70 · Puebla 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Necaxa 46.7% · Draw 26.1% · Puebla 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Puebla win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7416897

Closing Odds 2.07

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Puebla win · Necaxa 0–1 Puebla

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga MX
Fixture: Necaxa vs Puebla
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.1% · Draw 33.3% · Away 31.6%
xG (showing): Necaxa 1.09 — Puebla 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.11)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 64.7% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +19.8 pts · Est. EV: +42.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 44.2% · No 55.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	16
2	Guadalajara Chivas	7	4	2	1	14
3	Toluca	6	4	1	1	13
4	Club Queretaro	7	4	1	2	13
5	Club Tijuana	7	4	1	2	13
6	Atlas	7	4	1	2	13
7	Puebla	7	4	1	2	13
8	Cruz Azul	7	4	0	3	12
9	Pachuca	8	3	2	3	11
10	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	7	3	2	2	11
10	Leon	7	3	1	3	10
12	Monterrey	6	3	0	3	9
13	Necaxa	8	2	2	4	8
14	Atlante FC	8	1	4	3	7
15	Tigres UANL	7	1	3	3	6
16	Atletico San Luis	7	1	3	3	6
17	Santos Laguna	7	0	1	6	1
18	FC Juarez	7	0	0	7	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Pachuca	8	13	8	+5	11
2	Monterrey	6	13	10	+3	9
3	Club America	6	12	2	+10	16
4	Toluca	6	12	4	+8	13
5	Guadalajara Chivas	7	12	6	+6	14
6	Cruz Azul	7	12	11	+1	12
7	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	7	11	9	+2	11
8	Club Queretaro	7	10	7	+3	13
9	Club Tijuana	7	10	8	+2	13
10	Atlas	7	10	9	+1	13
11	Puebla	7	10	9	+1	13
12	Leon	7	9	9	0	10
13	Tigres UANL	7	9	11	-2	6
14	Necaxa	8	9	13	-4	8
15	Atletico San Luis	7	8	13	-5	6
16	Atlante FC	8	7	12	-5	7
17	Santos Laguna	7	4	12	-8	1
18	FC Juarez	7	3	21	-18	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Tijuana	7	8.2	3.2	+5.0	13
2	Cruz Azul	7	11.3	7.5	+3.8	12
3	Monterrey	6	9.8	6.2	+3.6	9
4	Club America	6	9.7	6.1	+3.6	16
5	Tigres UANL	7	9.7	7.3	+2.4	6
6	Guadalajara Chivas	7	7.2	5.3	+1.9	14
7	Toluca	6	7.0	5.5	+1.5	13
8	Necaxa	8	6.8	6.1	+0.7	8
9	Club Queretaro	7	8.6	8.8	-0.2	13
10	Puebla	7	6.7	7.0	-0.3	13
11	Leon	7	8.7	9.4	-0.7	10
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	7	5.9	7.1	-1.2	11
13	Santos Laguna	7	6.8	8.1	-1.3	1
14	Pachuca	8	7.4	9.2	-1.8	11
15	Atlas	7	6.6	9.5	-2.9	13
16	Atletico San Luis	7	7.8	11.1	-3.3	6
17	Atlante FC	8	6.3	10.1	-3.8	7
18	FC Juarez	7	3.0	10.1	-7.1	0