Prediction Audit: Club Queretaro vs Leon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Club Queretaro

Sep 21, 2026 - 02:10

1 1.46

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 80%

Leon

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Club Queretaro at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Club Queretaro Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Club Queretaro	38.4%	35.6%	+2.8 pp	Aligned
Draw	28.3%	27.9%	+0.3 pp	Aligned
Leon	33.4%	36.5%	-3.1 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
1X2: model leaned Club Queretaro; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 21, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Queretaro 38.4% · Draw 28.3% · Leon 33.4%
- xG · Club Queretaro 1.46 — Leon 1.35
Sep 21, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Queretaro 2.72 · Draw 3.53 · Leon 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Club Queretaro 35.5% · Draw 27.4% · Leon 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 21, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Queretaro 2.72 · Draw 3.46 · Leon 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Club Queretaro 35.6% · Draw 27.9% · Leon 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 21, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 29/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8835056

Closing Odds 2.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Club Queretaro 1–1 Leon

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga MX
Fixture: Club Queretaro vs Leon
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 02:10:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.4% · Draw 28.3% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Club Queretaro 1.46 — Leon 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.81)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.7% · Over 2.5 53.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.4% · No 41.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 58.4% · No 41.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	20
2	Guadalajara Chivas	10	5	3	2	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17
4	Club Queretaro	9	5	2	2	17
5	Atlas	10	5	2	3	17
6	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	16
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	14
8	Club Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	3	3	4	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	2	5	3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10
17	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	8
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Toluca	10	23	12	+11	20
2	Cruz Azul	10	19	18	+1	16
3	Club America	8	17	8	+9	17
4	Guadalajara Chivas	10	17	10	+7	18
5	Monterrey	9	16	14	+2	13
6	Atlas	10	16	17	-1	17
7	Pachuca	10	15	11	+4	12
8	Club Tijuana	9	14	13	+1	14
9	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	14	16	-2	12
10	Atletico San Luis	10	14	18	-4	12
11	Club Queretaro	9	13	8	+5	17
12	Leon	9	12	10	+2	14
13	Atlante FC	10	12	15	-3	11
14	Puebla	10	11	12	-1	14
15	Tigres UANL	10	10	13	-3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	10	15	-5	10
17	Necaxa	9	10	16	-6	8
18	FC Juarez	9	6	23	-17	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Tijuana	9	8.2	3.2	+5.0	14
2	Cruz Azul	10	11.3	7.5	+3.8	16
3	Monterrey	9	9.8	6.2	+3.6	13
4	Club America	8	9.7	6.1	+3.6	17
5	Toluca	10	8.9	6.1	+2.8	20
6	Tigres UANL	10	9.7	7.3	+2.4	10
7	Guadalajara Chivas	10	8.1	5.8	+2.3	18
8	Necaxa	9	6.8	6.1	+0.7	8
9	Santos Laguna	10	10.1	9.7	+0.4	10
10	Club Queretaro	9	8.6	8.8	-0.2	17
11	Leon	9	8.7	9.4	-0.7	14
12	Puebla	10	7.3	8.9	-1.6	14
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	6.4	8.0	-1.6	12
14	Pachuca	10	7.4	9.2	-1.8	12
15	Atlas	10	6.6	9.5	-2.9	17
16	Atletico San Luis	10	7.8	11.1	-3.3	12
17	Atlante FC	10	6.3	10.1	-3.8	11
18	FC Juarez	9	4.7	13.4	-8.7	3