Forecast Assessment
Reliable forecast
- Favourite
- Difaa EL Jadida Balanced match
- Model probability
- 33.8%
- Market probability
- 42.4%
- Market agreement
- Moderate
- Validation
- Pass
Summary:
Both lean Difaa EL Jadida, but the market prices them higher (42.4% vs model 33.8%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.
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Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Moderate
- Validation
- Pass
- Largest gap
- Difaa EL Jadida -8.6 pp
- Breadth
- 10/13
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Difaa EL Jadida. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Difaa EL Jadida | 33.82% | 42.39% | -8.6 pp |
| Draw | 32.87% | 32.76% | +0.1 pp |
| Olympique Dcheïra | 33.31% | 24.85% | +8.5 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Final betting verdict
No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.
- No value on 1X2 (Difaa EL Jadida vs. current odds)
- Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
- Thin edge: BTTS Yes (+2.6% — below default sizing bar)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
- Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)
BTTS: EV Yes +2.6% · EV No -5.9%
Difaa EL Jadida market context before kickoff
⚠️ Volatile market on Difaa EL Jadida
- Odds move
- 2.05 → 2.05 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 10/13
- Steam score
- 23 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 2.12
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Botola Pro — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Wydad AC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Raja Casablanca | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | FAR Rabat | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 5 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Hassania Agadir | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Difaa EL Jadida | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympique Dcheïra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Renaissance Berkane | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Kawkab Marrakech | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | FUS Rabat | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | UTS Rabat | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Yacoub El Mansour | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Olympique Safi | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 10 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | FAR Rabat | 8 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Wydad AC | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 | Renaissance Berkane | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Raja Casablanca | 9 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 19 |
| 6 | Hassania Agadir | 10 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | FUS Rabat | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Olympique Dcheïra | 10 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Yacoub El Mansour | 10 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | UTS Rabat | 11 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Kawkab Marrakech | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Difaa EL Jadida | 10 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 9 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Olympique Safi | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |