1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Morocco
- Model probability
- 49.3%
- Market probability
- 90.9%
- Difference
- -41.6 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -19.2%
No Value Edge
Lesotho vs Morocco Prediction
Model leans Morocco, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet
3.5/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Market Quality Risk
Consensus EV
+1.2%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
41.6 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
51/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 49.3% |
| Market (no-vig) | 90.9% |
| Difference | +41.6 pp |
The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Morocco.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Positive consensus EV (below Primary gate)+1.2% · need ≥ +5.0%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Morocco
Risk factors
- ✗Market pricing conflicts with the model favourite
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+17% EV → consensus +1.2%
Market Intelligence
Market move · Lesotho · ↓ -17.1%
Breadth
1/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -17.1%
Move Score
45 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseSharp repricing
StatusSharp-led move
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved toward Lesotho while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Under 2.5
- Model probability (Under)
- 51.8%
- Market probability (Under)
- 22.8%
- Difference
- +29.0 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- +0.4%
Positive Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 30.2%
- Difference
- +22.0 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -2.5%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 52.2%
BTTS No 47.8%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 11.9%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 2.9%
- Difference
- +9.0 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- +316.5%
Positive Edge
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 11.9%
- 0-1 11.8%
- 1-2 9.5%
- 0-2 9.4%
- 1-0 7.5%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 34.0
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Morocco at 49.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 90.9%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Morocco as the value side (49.3%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Edge does not clear Primary threshold
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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