Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Türkiye vs USA

Türkiye vs USA

Group D
Türkiye Türkiye
Jun 26, 2026 - 02:00
3 1.65
2 1.05
USA USA

Betting Signal

Model says
Türkiye 49.9%
Market says
USA 24.2%
Difference
31.3 pp
Status
Market disagrees with model

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers USA (24.2%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Türkiye, Market → USA, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Model vs Market Comparison

Türkiye
49.9% vs 24.2%
+25.7 pp
Draw
27.5% vs 21.92%
+5.6 pp
USA
22.6% vs 53.88%
-31.3 pp

Largest Gap

USA -31.3 pp

The market is substantially more bullish on USA than the model.

The model and market differ by 31.3 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup — validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Model Breakdown Risk

Extreme model-market divergence — model output may be unreliable. The model and market differ by 31.3 percentage points. Do not treat model probabilities as actionable without further validation.

AI Forecast
Türkiye 49.9%
Draw 27.5%
USA 22.6%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
54.0%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
46.0%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 54.0% · No 46.0% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
1-1 13.2%
1-0 9.6%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 9.2%
0-0 8.2%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.2% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Match Phase: Finished

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prediction Generated
  2. Market Compared
    Entry Pending
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
    Closing 1.81
  5. CLV Evaluated
    CLV Pending Awaiting CLV calculation
Back to today's predictions
Group D fixtures