Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Türkiye vs USA

Türkiye vs USA

Group D
Türkiye Türkiye
Jun 26, 2026 - 02:00
1.65
1.05
49.9% 27.5% 22.6%
USA USA

Betting Signal

Model says
Türkiye 49.9%
Market says
USA 35.4%
Difference
14.5 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers USA (35.4%).

Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (↑ +2.9%, 8/12).

This creates a conflict: Model → Türkiye, Market → USA, Recent sharp money → Draw.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move Draw ↑ +2.9%
Market breadth 8/12
Steam Score 37C
Phase Discovery
Ref book Bet365 (Sharp-led move: SBO)
CLV validation Waiting for Close

Odds path — Draw

🐢 Slow drift over 143h 56m

Open 3.55
Low / High 3.07
Current 3.50

Market vs Model

Türkiye
49.9% vs 35.44%
+14.5 pp
Draw
27.5% vs 27.42%
+0.1 pp
USA
22.6% vs 37.14%
-14.5 pp

Largest Gap

USA -14.5 pp

The market is substantially more bullish on USA than the model.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

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AI Forecast
Türkiye 49.9%
Draw 27.5%
USA 22.6%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
54.0%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
46.0%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 54.0% · No 46.0% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
1-1 11.6%
1-0 11.1%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 9.2%
0-1 7.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 11.6% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.51
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
Back to today's predictions
Group D fixtures