Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

Group B
Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina
Jun 24, 2026 - 19:00
1.63
1.07
48.9% 27.7% 23.4%
Qatar Qatar

Betting Signal

Sharp Money Alert

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↑ +8.0%

9/12 sportsbooks confirmed

Steam Score: 56B — Moderate sharp signal

Model says
Bosnia & Herzegovina 48.9%
Market says
Bosnia & Herzegovina 58.1%
Difference
9.2 pp
Status
Model and market broadly aligned

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Bosnia & Herzegovina (58.1%).

However, Bosnia & Herzegovina has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (↑ +8.0%, 9/12).

The model leans Bosnia & Herzegovina, with modest separation from other outcomes. Monitor market movement before kickoff.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move Bosnia & Herzegovina ↑ +8.0%
Market breadth 9/12
Steam Score 56B
Phase Sharp repricing
Ref book Bet365
CLV validation Waiting for Close

Odds path — Bosnia & Herzegovina

🐢 Slow drift over 172h 34m

Open 1.69
Low / High 1.50
Current 1.62

Market vs Model

Bosnia & Herzegovina
48.9% vs 58.07%
-9.2 pp
Draw
27.7% vs 24.93%
+2.8 pp
Qatar
23.4% vs 17.0%
+6.4 pp

Largest Gap

Bosnia & Herzegovina -9.2 pp

The market is substantially more bullish on Bosnia & Herzegovina than the model.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

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AI Forecast
Bosnia & Herzegovina 48.9%
Draw 27.7%
Qatar 23.4%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
54.3%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
45.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 54.3% · No 45.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
1-1 11.7%
1-0 11.0%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 8.9%
0-1 7.2%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 11.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.61
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
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Group B fixtures