Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Türkiye vs Paraguay

Türkiye vs Paraguay

Group D
Türkiye Türkiye
Jun 20, 2026 - 03:00
1.47
1.23
41.0% 28.8% 30.3%
Paraguay Paraguay

Betting Signal

Model says
Türkiye 41.0%
Market says
Türkiye 42.6%
Difference
2.7 pp
Status
Model and market broadly aligned

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Türkiye (42.6%).

Paraguay has attracted notable multi-book line movement (↑ +2.9%, 3/12).

This creates a conflict: Model → Türkiye, Market → Türkiye, Recent sharp money → Paraguay.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move Paraguay ↑ +2.9%
Market breadth 3/12
Steam Score 16C
Phase Volatile
Ref book Bet365 (Sharp-led move: SBO)
CLV validation Waiting for Close

Odds path — Paraguay

🐢 Slow drift over 119h 56m

Open 3.50
Low / High 3.11
Current 3.50

Market vs Model

Türkiye
41.0% vs 42.64%
-1.6 pp
Draw
28.8% vs 29.78%
-1.0 pp
Paraguay
30.3% vs 27.59%
+2.7 pp

Largest Gap

Paraguay +2.7 pp

The model is substantially more bullish on Paraguay than the market.

Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

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AI Forecast
Türkiye 41.0%
Draw 28.8%
Paraguay 30.3%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
56.1%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
43.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.1% · No 43.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
1-1 12.2%
1-0 9.9%
2-1 8.9%
0-1 8.3%
1-2 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.2% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
3.4
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
Back to today's predictions
Group D fixtures