Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Group B
Switzerland Switzerland
Jun 18, 2026 - 19:00
1.83
0.87
58.5% 25.3% 16.2%
Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina

Betting Signal

Model says
Switzerland 58.5%
Market says
Switzerland 59.4%
Difference
1.4 pp
Status
Model and market broadly aligned

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Switzerland (59.4%).

The model and market both identify Switzerland as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.

Market vs Model

Switzerland
58.5% vs 59.42%
-0.9 pp
Draw
25.3% vs 23.92%
+1.4 pp
Bosnia & Herzegovina
16.2% vs 16.66%
-0.5 pp

Largest Gap

Draw +1.4 pp

The model is substantially more bullish on Draw than the market.

Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

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AI Forecast
Switzerland 58.5%
Draw 25.3%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 16.2%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
50.3%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
49.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 50.3% · No 49.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
1-0 12.3%
2-0 11.2%
1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.8%
3-0 6.8%

Top Poisson cell: 1-0 at 12.3% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
3.9
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
Back to today's predictions
Group B fixtures