AI correctly predicted the Austria win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Austria Austria ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 53.6% | 65.2% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 22.4% | 19.9% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Israel | 24.0% | 15.0% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Austria's win probability at 65.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.6%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Austria win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Austria than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Austria higher (65.2% vs model 53.6%, 11.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Austria win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Austria 53.5% · Draw 22.4% · Israel 24.1%
- xG · Austria 2.00 — Israel 1.79
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Austria 1.48 · Draw 4.86 · Israel 6.45
- Implied 1X2 · Austria 65.2% · Draw 19.9% · Israel 15.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Austria 1.48 · Draw 4.86 · Israel 6.45
- Implied 1X2 · Austria 65.2% · Draw 19.9% · Israel 15.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Austria win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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