Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Vila Nova vs Londrina

Prediction Audit: Vila Nova vs Londrina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vila Nova Vila Nova
Sep 25, 2026 - 23:30
2 1.33
0 0.89
xG Accuracy: 65%
Londrina Londrina

AI correctly predicted the Vila Nova win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Vila Nova higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vila Nova -10.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vila Nova 45.2% 55.7% -10.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.4% 26.4% +5.0 pp Aligned
Londrina 23.4% 17.9% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Vila Nova's win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.2%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vila Nova win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Vila Nova than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Vila Nova attacking xG significantly stronger (1.33 vs 0.89)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vila Nova higher (55.7% vs model 45.2%, 10.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vila Nova win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vila Nova 45.2% · Draw 31.4% · Londrina 23.4%
    • xG · Vila Nova 1.33 — Londrina 0.89
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vila Nova 1.73 · Draw 3.62 · Londrina 5.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Vila Nova 55.5% · Draw 26.5% · Londrina 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vila Nova 1.72 · Draw 3.63 · Londrina 5.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Vila Nova 55.7% · Draw 26.4% · Londrina 17.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vila Nova win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9580215

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vila Nova win · Vila Nova 2–0 Londrina
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Vila Nova vs Londrina
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.2% · Draw 31.4% · Away 23.4%
  • xG (showing): Vila Nova 1.33 — Londrina 0.89 (total xG ≈ 2.22)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.7% · Implied: 54.2% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +9.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.0% · No 55.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
3 Fortaleza EC 29 14 9 6 51
4 Juventude 29 14 8 7 50
5 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
6 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
7 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 47
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 45
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
14 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 29 4 5 20 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
3 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
4 CRB 29 42 41 +1 45
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 29 34 31 +3 41
11 Fortaleza EC 29 33 24 +9 51
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
14 Juventude 29 31 19 +12 50
15 Cuiaba 29 30 22 +8 43
16 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
17 Avai 29 30 38 -8 30
18 Criciuma 29 28 27 +1 47
19 America Mineiro 29 21 49 -28 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 29 16.8 10.1 +6.7 51
3 Cuiaba 29 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 29 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 29 18.6 15.8 +2.8 45
8 Juventude 29 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 29 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 29 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 29 11.9 19.2 -7.3 41
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions