Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC

Prediction Audit: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cuiaba Cuiaba
Aug 09, 2026 - 21:00
1 0.95
1 1.04
xG Accuracy: 98%
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Fortaleza EC at 35.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fortaleza EC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Cuiaba -3.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cuiaba 30.4% 33.4% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 34.4% 34.0% +0.4 pp Aligned
Fortaleza EC 35.1% 32.5% +2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.99, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Fortaleza EC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cuiaba 30.4% · Draw 34.4% · Fortaleza EC 35.2%
    • xG · Cuiaba 0.95 — Fortaleza EC 1.04
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cuiaba 2.44 · Draw 2.97 · Fortaleza EC 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Cuiaba 39.5% · Draw 32.4% · Fortaleza EC 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cuiaba 2.88 · Draw 2.83 · Fortaleza EC 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Cuiaba 33.4% · Draw 34.0% · Fortaleza EC 32.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 29/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2969500

Closing Odds 2.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Cuiaba 1–1 Fortaleza EC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.4% · Draw 34.4% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Cuiaba 0.95 — Fortaleza EC 1.04 (total xG ≈ 1.99)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 67.9% · Over 2.5 32.1%); BTTS No (Yes 41.4% · No 58.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.4% · No 58.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
3 Fortaleza EC 29 14 9 6 51
4 Juventude 29 14 8 7 50
5 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
6 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
7 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 47
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 45
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
14 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 29 4 5 20 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
3 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
4 CRB 29 42 41 +1 45
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 29 34 31 +3 41
11 Fortaleza EC 29 33 24 +9 51
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
14 Juventude 29 31 19 +12 50
15 Cuiaba 29 30 22 +8 43
16 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
17 Avai 29 30 38 -8 30
18 Criciuma 29 28 27 +1 47
19 America Mineiro 29 21 49 -28 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 29 16.8 10.1 +6.7 51
3 Cuiaba 29 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 29 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 29 18.6 15.8 +2.8 45
8 Juventude 29 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 29 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 29 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 29 11.9 19.2 -7.3 41
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions